Democratic
John Garamendi
Incumbent representative for CA-8. Voting record, ideology and biography →
← all House races
California District 8 election, 2026
John Garamendi vs. Rudy Recile on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
John Garamendi favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+42.4
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+35.22026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.2 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Rudy Recile
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for CA-8. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026John GaramendiDEM · incumbent$583k raised
Spent $616kCash on hand $1.2M2% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$26k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$25k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$16k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$14k
- Government Relations and Lobbying Services$10k
States
- CA$105k
- DC$8k
- TN$7k
- TX$7k
- VA$5k
Rudy RecileREP$20k raised
Spent $21kCash on hand $235Debts $40k12% from donors under $200Self-funded $9k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$6k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$25
States
- CA$7k
- MT$500
- SC$500
- WA$25
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for CA-8; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
California Democrats Push Back on Reports of Trump Administration Plans to Deport Immigrants by Ship
Rep. John Garamendi opposes plans to use a maritime training vessel at Mare Island.
KQED · October 28, 2026
Every House Member Who’s Still Not at Work After a Five-Week Vacation
The House of Representatives has returned from its five-week summer vacation, but for more than three dozen members that extended break apparently wasn’t enough.According to the House clerk, 46 lawmakers failed to make it back to Washington in time for the fi…
The New Republic · September 1, 2026
'Trillion-Dollar Scam': Lawmakers Demand Halt to Trump's Golden Dome Boondoggle
Democratic lawmakers are taking aim at President Donald Trump's proposed “Golden Dome” missile defense system, which the Congressional Budget Office projected last month would cost $1.2 trillion to create, deploy, and operate over the first 20 years of its ex…
Common Dreams · June 18, 2026
'Who Are You Cheering For?' Hegseth Suggests US Lawmaker Is a Traitor for Criticizing Trump's Iran War
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Wednesday lashed out at a Democratic lawmaker over his criticism of President Donald Trump's illegal war with Iran.During testimony before the House Armed Services Committee, Hegseth attacked Rep. John Garamendi (D-Calif.)…
Common Dreams · April 29, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗