Democratic
Josh Harder
Incumbent representative for CA-9. Voting record, ideology and biography →
← all House races
California District 9 election, 2026
Josh Harder vs. John McBride on a newly enacted 2026 district map.
VotePredictor forecast
Josh Harder favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+21.6
100%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
D+12.02026 national environment
D+5.5Model uncertainty
±6.9 pointsFundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.
Republican
John McBride
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for CA-9. The forecast above therefore uses fundamentals only. A poll table will appear here when matched polls are available.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for CA-9; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
3633 - New Fed Chair; Building Political solidarity w/ Liz Pancotti, Yuh-Line Niou
It's Hump Day on The Majority Report On today's program: Marco Rubio goes on Fox News to justify the war with Iran. Pete Hegseth defends it while testifying before Congress on the budget. It appears that the administration has spent more time figuring out…
Libsyn.com · April 29, 2026
Elizabeth Warren Is Right About the Democrats’ Big Problem
Elizabeth Warren gave an excellent speech January 12 (text; video) urging Democrats not to “to sand down our edges to avoid offending anyone, especially the rich and powerful who might finance our candidates…. When Democrats water down their economic platform…
The New Republic · January 16, 2026
86 Democrats Condemn Socialism as Zohran Mamdani Meets With Trump
In a country where the cost of living skyrockets while wages remain low, where a few broken bones can leave you in financial ruin, and where the young feel they have no chance at any upward mobility, 86 House Democrats joined Republicans to pass a resolution …
The New Republic · November 21, 2025
Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifts 11 California races toward Democrats, 1 toward GOP
Voters in the Golden State passed Proposition 50, a ballot measure that will allow lawmakers to redraw congressional lines ahead of the midterm elections. The state’s congressional Democrats — including Reps. Jim Costa, Adam Gray, Josh Harder, Doug LaMalfa, D…
Freerepublic.com · November 5, 2025
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗