Actual result
D+11.1
Final polls said
D+4.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+3.4
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Global Strategy Group | D+9.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+3.4 | 7.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | Tarrance Group | R+1.0 | 12.1 | ✗ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy Group | 2012-10-09 | 400 | D+9.0 | 2 |
| Tarrance Group | 2012-10-01 | 409 | R+1.0 | 12 |