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Toss-up · 2012 House
California House
In the 2012 California House race, Jerry McNerney (D) won by about 11 points.
Actual result
D+11.1
Final polls said
D+4.0
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
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Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Global Strategy Group | D+9.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Tarrance Group | R+1.0 | 12.1 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Global Strategy Group2012-10-092
Tarrance Group2012-10-0112
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2012 California House race?
Jerry McNerney (D) won, by about 11.1 points (D+11.1).
When was the 2012 California House election held?
It was held in November 2012.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.