Democratic
Jessica Killin
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Colorado District 5 election, 2026
Jessica Killin vs. Jeff Crank. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Jeff Crank favored
Toss-up · predicted margin R+0.9
57%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+9.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
3, averaging D+1.3Forecast spread
±5.3 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). The 3 district polls are blended in by inverse variance, about 54% of the weight: the model alone said R+3.5.
Republican
Jeff Crank
Incumbent representative for CO-5. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Mark Elworth · Libertarian
- Christopher Mitchell · Constitution
Polls
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstEach pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).
PollsterDateSampleMargin
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 54% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Jessica KillinDEM$5.6M raised
Spent $5.1MCash on hand $508k9% from donors under $200Self-funded $1.0M
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$1.1M
- Self-Employed & Freelance$358k
- Retired$302k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$196k
- Legal & Professional Services$179k
States
- CO$1.0M
- CA$541k
- NY$447k
- DC$357k
- MD$212k
Jeff CrankREP · incumbent$2.9M raised
Spent $2.4MCash on hand $543k6% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$224k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$57k
- Legal & Professional Services$46k
- Not Reported$41k
- Government Relations and Lobbying Services$34k
States
- CO$573k
- VA$84k
- MD$36k
- FL$31k
- TX$29k
Christopher MitchellCON$210 raised
Spent $9Cash on hand $201Debts $11k0% from donors under $200Self-funded $200
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for CO-5; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Colorado's 5th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Republican's Epstein vote comes back to haunt him: 'He has no business being in Congress'
Despite ultimately voting to release files related to Jeffrey Epstein, Rep. Jeff Crank (R-CO) actively worked against the effort early on, and his opposition to the release will be highlighted in a new attack ad against the Colorado Republican as he faces a “…
Raw Story · October 5, 2026
That Vote’s Gotta Hurt
By Issues & Insights Editorial Board | September 03, 2026 Republicans, who are routinely outfoxed by Democrats in Congress, finally seem to have figured out how to play the game correctly. Witness the resolution introduced by Rep. Jeff Crank, R-Colo., denounc…
Biztoc.com · September 8, 2026
GOP Rep. Booed After Suddenly Developing Amnesia About Lake America Name Change
During Thursday's debate, Republican Congressman Jeff Crank was booed by the audience when he feigned not knowing Trump had just signed another executive order renaming Lake Ontario to Lake America to punish Canada. During this segment, the debate host asked …
Crooksandliars.com · August 29, 2026
How Proposed Student Loan Rules Could Help You Buy First Home
A bill recently introduced in the House aims to tackle two of the biggest obstacles that younger Americans face when looking to buy a home: student loan debt and housing affordability. Representative Jeff Crank, a Colorado Republican, introduced the First Tim…
Biztoc.com · August 18, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗