Actual result
R+19.3
Final polls said
R+9.7
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+10.4
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Basswood Research | R+17.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+10.4 | 8.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyUSA | R+9.0 | 10.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+7.0 | 12.3 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2006-11-02 | 596 | R+9.0 | 10 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-10-25 | 400 | R+7.0 | 12 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-17 | 543 | R+13.0 | 6 |
| Basswood Research | 2006-10-10 | 300 | R+17.0 | 2 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-10-05 | 442 | EVEN | 19 |