Democratic
Luke Bronin
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Connecticut District 1 election, 2026
Luke Bronin vs. Amy Chai. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Luke Bronin favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+30.4
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+23.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.2 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (open seat: none). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Amy Chai
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Mary Sanders · Green
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for CT-1. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Luke BroninDEM$3.9M raised
Spent $3.5MCash on hand $391k4% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- GUPTA, JESS$14k
- SCHILBERG, BERNARD$12k
- ASNESS, CLIFFORD$11k
- ASNESS, LAUREL$11k
- BONANNO, CHRISTINE$11k
Industries
- Unemployed$1.1M
- Self-Employed & Freelance$279k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$236k
- Legal & Professional Services$214k
- Technology & Communications$62k
States
- CT$2.1M
- NY$536k
- CA$165k
- FL$153k
- MA$125k
Amy ChaiREP$22k raised
Spent $16kCash on hand $69011% from donors under $200Self-funded $17k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
States
- CT$480
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for CT-1; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Connecticut's 1st district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
Candidate news
No recent verified candidate stories are available in the site's news feed for this race yet.
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗