Connecticut District 1 election, 2026

Luke Bronin vs. Amy Chai.

VotePredictor forecast

Luke Bronin favored

Safe D · predicted margin D+38.5

100%

chance to win

2024 presidential lean

D+24.2

2026 national environment

D+6.3

Model uncertainty

±6.9 points

Fundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.

Democratic

Luke Bronin

Major-party general-election nominee.

Republican

Amy Chai

Major-party general-election nominee.

Polls

No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for CT-1. The forecast above uses fundamentals only.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for CT-1; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report

View House ratings ↗

Inside Elections

View House ratings ↗

Sabato's Crystal Ball

View House analysis ↗

Past results

Every election in Connecticut's 1st district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.

YearWinnerMargin

2010John B. Larson(D)D+20.6

1998John B. Larson(D)D+16.6

Candidate news

No recent verified candidate stories are available in the site's news feed for this race yet.

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: CO-8 · CT-2