Democratic
Manny Rutinel
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Colorado District 8 election, 2026
Manny Rutinel vs. Gabe Evans. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Manny Rutinel favored
Toss-up · predicted margin D+1.3
58%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+2.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
1, averaging R+2.0Forecast spread
±6.1 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). The 1 district poll are blended in by inverse variance, about 39% of the weight: the model alone said D+3.4.
Republican
Gabe Evans
Incumbent representative for CO-8. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Dave Wood · Libertarian
Polls
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstEach pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).
PollsterDateSampleMargin
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 39% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Manny RutinelDEM$9.5M raised
Spent $8.5MCash on hand $1.0M37% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$2.0M
- Technology & Communications$428k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$405k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$231k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$125k
States
- CA$1.3M
- CO$918k
- NY$510k
- MA$272k
- DC$224k
Gabe EvansREP · incumbent$7.2M raised
Spent $6.0MCash on hand $1.3MDebts $20k17% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$1.0M
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$118k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$113k
- Legal & Professional Services$32k
- Energy, Utilities & Mining$31k
States
- CO$810k
- TX$250k
- FL$115k
- CA$105k
- VA$87k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for CO-8; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Colorado's 8th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
Candidate news
'Severe risk of losing': Top political group makes stunning change in midterm predictions
Four Republican incumbents may have cost their party control of the House of Representatives this month, according to leading political analysts. Cook Political Report, the nonpartisan ratings group Washington is apparently "obsessed" with, has quietly bumped…
Raw Story · October 28, 2026
Manny Rutinel leans hard into anti-Trumpism in 8th District race — while pivoting away from his activist past
Manny Rutinel was a vegan activist, but this year he ate a meat taco during a campaign stop. That's not the only position he's changed as he's run for Congress to unseat Rep. Gabe Evans.
The Denver Post · October 22, 2026
Beef prices are soaring — and now meat is a midterm election issue
In the midterm elections, meat is on the menu. As Democrats and Republicans argue over high prices and the Iran war, they're also having a food fight over who's the most red-blooded carnivore. The latest example came this week in Mississippi, where Democrat…
Yahoo Entertainment · October 15, 2026
Why Do Democrats Keep Posting Videos of Themselves Pumping Iron?
After a historic setback in 2024, the Democratic rebrand appears to be working out. No, seriously—the rebrand is that they’re all filming themselves working out. In late September, Manny Rutinel, a Democrat challenging Rep. Gabe Evans in Colorado, posted a vi…
Mother Jones · October 5, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗