VotePredictor
← all House races

Connecticut District 2 election, 2026

Joe Courtney vs. George Austin. Today's article: every forecast for this race →

VotePredictor forecast
Joe Courtney favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+18.5
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+8.0
2026 national environment
D+8.0
District polls
1, averaging D+19.0
Forecast spread
±6.1 points

Margin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). The 1 district poll are blended in by inverse variance, about 39% of the weight: the model alone said D+18.2.

Republican

George Austin

Major-party general-election nominee.

Polls

The polls behind it

1 poll · newest first

Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).

PollsterDateMargin
DM Strategies (via Wikipedia)10-19D+19.0

These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 39% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.

Campaign money

FEC reports through October 14, 2026
Joe CourtneyDEM · incumbent$967k raised
Spent $932kCash on hand $386k11% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. INTERNATIONAL BROTHERHOOD OF BOILERMAKERS CAF$10k
  2. MEYER, ROSLYN M. PHD$10k
  3. AIR LINE PILOTS ASSOCIATION PAC$8k
  4. COPE, SEIU$8k
  5. SCHILBERG, BETH$7k

Industries

  1. Unemployed$79k
  2. Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$62k
  3. Defense & Aerospace$27k
  4. Legal & Professional Services$20k
  5. Self-Employed & Freelance$15k

States

  1. CT$221k
  2. VA$22k
  3. DC$16k
  4. FL$11k
  5. MA$8k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗
George AustinREP$315k raised
Spent $218kCash on hand $97kDebts $240k9% from donors under $200Self-funded $240k
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. AUSTIN, GEORGE$240k
  2. POLYDYS, NANCY$2k
  3. PRUDDEN, KATHLEEN$2k
  4. SEARS, WENDY$1k
  5. LABBE, TODD$1k

Industries

  1. Retired$9k
  2. Government$2k
  3. Not Reported$2k
  4. Self-Employed & Freelance$2k
  5. Defense & Aerospace$500

States

  1. CT$27k
  2. MA$1k
  3. AZ$500
  4. FL$500
  5. GA$250
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗

What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for CT-2; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report
View House ratings ↗
Inside Elections
View House ratings ↗
Sabato's Crystal Ball
View House analysis ↗

Past results

Every election in Connecticut's 2nd district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.

YearWinnerMargin
2022Joe Courtney(D)D+18.1
2010Joe Courtney(D)D+21.1
2008Joe Courtney(D)D+33.3
2006Joe Courtney(D)EVEN
2004Robert R. Simmons(R)R+8.4
2002Robert R. Simmons(R)R+8.2
2000Robert R. Simmons(R)R+1.3

Candidate news

Every Democrat Who Voted to Defund Schools That Boycott Israel

On Thursday, 33 Democrats joined Republicans to pass a law that would take federal funding away from academic institutions involved in any kind of boycott of or divestment from Israel. The legislation passed 237–169.The Protect Economic and Academic Freedom A…

The New Republic · September 3, 2026
Student Loan Update: New Bill Would Cut Payments by Thousands of Dollars

Millions of Americans with federal student loans could see their monthly payments fall and save thousands of dollars under a new proposal in Congress. The Student Loan Interest Elimination Act has been championed by two Democrats—Senator Peter Welch of Vermon…

Biztoc.com · July 23, 2026
US stops Poland troop deployment after Germany pullout order

Both Democratic and Republican lawmakers in the US have criticized the Trump administration's plans to cancel a troop deployment to Poland. It came after Trump ordered the pullout of 5,000 troops from Germany. The Pentagon said it is halting the deployment of…

DW (English) · May 15, 2026
After review, Pentagon confirms submarine sales to Australia

Washington, United States (AFP) Dec 5, 2025 - The Pentagon said Monday it has endorsed the tripartite AUKUS security pact with the United Kingdom and Australia, which would involve Canberra's acquisition of at least three Virginia-class nuclear submarines w…

Spacewar.com · December 16, 2025

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: CT-1 · CT-3