Democratic
Gay Valimont
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all House races
Florida District 1 election, 2026
Gay Valimont vs. Jimmy Patronis on a newly enacted 2026 district map.
VotePredictor forecast
Jimmy Patronis favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+44.5
100%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+37.62026 national environment
D+6.3Model uncertainty
±6.9 pointsFundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.
Republican
Jimmy Patronis
Incumbent representative for FL-1. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Tyler Davis · Independent
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for FL-1. The forecast above uses fundamentals only.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for FL-1; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Florida's 1st district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
Candidate news
Lawmaker Pulls Welcome Mat After Jelly Roll's Trump Jokes
Jelly Roll's latest late-night stint has earned him one "a Southern man don't need him around, anyhow" from a Florida legislator. Republican state Rep. Jimmy Patronis posted on X that the star, born Jason DeFord, is "100% not welcomed in the Panhandle" after …
Newser · August 27, 2026
Florida Republican Bans Jelly Roll From District Over Trump Fat Jokes
Jimmy Patronis said on social media that the singer “is 100% not welcomed to Florida’s panhandle.”
HuffPost · August 27, 2026
‘Not welcome!’ Republican bans Jelly Roll from district after brutal Trump jokes
A Republican congressman has abruptly changed his tune on country music star Jelly Roll after the singer delivered a brutal series of jokes about President Donald Trump on late-night TV. Rep. Jimmy Patronis (R-FL) once warmly welcomed Jelly Roll to his Florid…
Raw Story · August 26, 2026
Exclusive -- Florida Rep. Jimmy Patronis Walks Through Potential Changes to Property Taxes in Florida
Floridians will have the chance to approve or reject a proposed constitutional amendment changing property taxes in Florida, Rep. Jimmy Patronis (R-FL) said during an appearance on Breitbart News Daily, explaining what the proposed changes are and what it mea…
Breitbart News · June 5, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗