Democratic
Gay Valimont
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Florida District 1 election, 2026
Gay Valimont vs. Jimmy Patronis on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Jimmy Patronis favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+27.8
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+37.62026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±6.6 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Jimmy Patronis
Incumbent representative for FL-1. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Tyler Davis · Independent
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for FL-1. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Jimmy PatronisREP$4.5M raised
Spent $3.5MCash on hand $939k22% from donors under $200Self-funded $12k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$471k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$164k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$129k
- Legal & Professional Services$79k
- Homemaker$41k
States
- FL$2.0M
- TX$54k
- NY$45k
- CA$39k
- AL$38k
Gay ValimontDEM$296k raised
Spent $261kCash on hand $35k60% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$73k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$7k
- Defense & Aerospace$450
- Legal & Professional Services$425
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$350
States
- FL$89k
- CA$4k
- MA$3k
- GA$3k
- WA$3k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for FL-1; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Florida's 1st district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
Candidate news
Rep. Jimmy Patronis asks ACC to disclose sports betting policies amid push for college sports bill
Rep. Jimmy Patronis is demanding the ACC disclose its online sports betting policies for staff and referees before Congress returns in November.
Fox News · October 22, 2026
Lawmaker Pulls Welcome Mat After Jelly Roll's Trump Jokes
Jelly Roll's latest late-night stint has earned him one "a Southern man don't need him around, anyhow" from a Florida legislator. Republican state Rep. Jimmy Patronis posted on X that the star, born Jason DeFord, is "100% not welcomed in the Panhandle" after …
Newser · August 27, 2026
Florida Republican Bans Jelly Roll From District Over Trump Fat Jokes
Jimmy Patronis said on social media that the singer “is 100% not welcomed to Florida’s panhandle.”
HuffPost · August 27, 2026
‘Not welcome!’ Republican bans Jelly Roll from district after brutal Trump jokes
A Republican congressman has abruptly changed his tune on country music star Jelly Roll after the singer delivered a brutal series of jokes about President Donald Trump on late-night TV. Rep. Jimmy Patronis (R-FL) once warmly welcomed Jelly Roll to his Florid…
Raw Story · August 26, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗