Democratic
Maxwell Frost
Incumbent representative for FL-10. Voting record, ideology and biography →
← all House races
Florida District 10 election, 2026
Maxwell Frost vs. Republican nominee TBD on a newly enacted 2026 district map.
VotePredictor forecast
Maxwell Frost favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+30.3
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
D+24.32026 national environment
D+6.6District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.8 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Nominee not yet identified
The primary may be unresolved, or the source does not yet list one clear nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for FL-10. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for FL-10; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Florida's 10th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Austin Man Shot by ICE Facing Paralysis After Being Refused Medical Care
Democrats in Congress on Monday evening were demanding a full, independent investigation into US Immigration and Customs Enforcement's shooting on Sunday of Wilber Rafael Garces Perez, as it was reported that he had been held in an ICE detention center with a…
Common Dreams · September 22, 2026
'Sadistic and Cruel': Democratic Lawmakers Rail Against $20 Million for ICE's Electric Shock Gloves
Democrats in both chambers of Congress this week have joined rights advocates in forcefully denouncing plans for US Immigration and Customs Enforcement to spend up to $20 million on "gloves that can deliver painful electric shocks."The Department of Homeland …
Common Dreams · August 13, 2026
The Crucial Voting Bloc in Michigan’s Primary Today
Editor’s Note: Welcome to The TNR Blue Book. It’s our new daily newsletter that covers Congress and much more, but with a distinctly TNR twist: Our focus will be strictly on Democrats, liberal and progressive groups, and the fight to take back power and save …
The New Republic · August 4, 2026
Green Groups Rally Behind Tennessee's Justin Pearson for Congress
A week away from Tennessee's Democratic primary, a coalition of national advocacy groups endorsed Justin Pearson, who is running to represent the state's 9th Congressional District in the US House of Representatives."Tennesseans deserve a champion who will st…
Common Dreams · July 30, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗