Democratic
Maxwell Frost
Incumbent representative for FL-10. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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Florida District 10 election, 2026
Maxwell Frost vs. Republican nominee TBD on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Maxwell Frost favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+31.1
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+24.32026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.2 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Nominee not yet identified
The primary may be unresolved, or the source does not yet list one clear nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for FL-10. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Maxwell FrostDEM · incumbent$3.8M raised
Spent $3.9MCash on hand $1.1M51% from donors under $200Self-funded $9k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- MADSOUL VICTORY FUND$114k
- WEITZ, BARBARA$17k
- ERHART, SUSAN$11k
- RESNICK, WILLIAM$11k
- WENZEL, VONESA$10k
Industries
- Unemployed$842k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$158k
- Technology & Communications$51k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$46k
- Legal & Professional Services$42k
States
- FL$565k
- CA$281k
- NY$95k
- IL$64k
- MA$61k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for FL-10; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Florida's 10th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
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Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗