Democratic
Sarah McBride
Incumbent representative for DE-1. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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Delaware District 1 election, 2026
Sarah McBride vs. Joseph Arminio. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Sarah McBride favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+23.4
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+15.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.2 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Joseph Arminio
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for DE-1. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Sarah McBrideDEM · incumbent$5.6M raised
Spent $3.4MCash on hand $2.3M26% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- MAJORITY FUND$191k
- POWERS, CAROLINE$17k
- MCBRIDE VICTORY FUND$15k
- HOLLMAN, DAISY$14k
- SILVER, TERESA$14k
Industries
- Not Reported$1.3M
- Self-Employed & Freelance$480k
- Legal & Professional Services$246k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$119k
- Technology & Communications$71k
States
- DE$874k
- CA$568k
- NY$531k
- DC$181k
- MA$169k
Joseph ArminioREP$12k raised
Spent $5kCash on hand $7kDebts $5k8% from donors under $200Self-funded $5k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Self-Employed & Freelance$3k
- Retired$2k
States
- DE$3k
- DC$2k
- CA$1k
- VA$1k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for DE-1; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Delaware's 1st district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Eight Transgender, Nonbinary Democrats Win Legislative Races
Eight transgender or nonbinary Democrats won legislative races Tuesday, including in Alabama, Montana, and Georgia, with seven winning statehouse seats and Delaware Rep. Sarah McBride securing another term in Congress. The post Eight Transgender, Nonbinary De…
Breitbart News · Yesterday
'Queer News Tonight': Democrat Congress Will Change Rule So Transgender Sarah McBride Can Use Women's Bathroom
LGBTQ+ online news broadcast Queer News Tonight is predicting that one of the first acts of the Democrat-controlled Congress will be a rule change so transgender Rep. Sarah McBride (D-DE), a man who believes he is a woman, will be able to use the women's bath…
Breitbart News · November 5, 2026
LaTosha Brown’s Case for America’s First Department of Democracy
Weekend Reading on Women’s Representation is a compilation of stories about women’s representation in politics, on boards, in sports and entertainment, in judicial offices and in the private sector in the U.S. and around the world—with a little gardening and …
Ms. Magazine · September 19, 2026
Officials Remove Republican Candidate From Forum After ‘Misgendering’ Transgender Rep Sarah McBride
A Republican House candidate was removed from a Delaware forum after twice refusing to use female terms for his transgender opponent, Sarah McBride.
The Daily Caller · September 18, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗