Democratic
Sarah McBride
Incumbent representative for DE-1. Voting record, ideology and biography →
VotePredictor forecast
Sarah McBride favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+20.9
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
D+15.02026 national environment
D+6.5District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.8 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Joseph Arminio
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for DE-1. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for DE-1; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Delaware's 1st district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
LaTosha Brown’s Case for America’s First Department of Democracy
Weekend Reading on Women’s Representation is a compilation of stories about women’s representation in politics, on boards, in sports and entertainment, in judicial offices and in the private sector in the U.S. and around the world—with a little gardening and …
Ms. Magazine · September 19, 2026
Officials Remove Republican Candidate From Forum After ‘Misgendering’ Transgender Rep Sarah McBride
A Republican House candidate was removed from a Delaware forum after twice refusing to use female terms for his transgender opponent, Sarah McBride.
The Daily Caller · September 18, 2026
Delaware GOP House candidate pressured by fellow party member to drop out of race after transphobic comments
GOP U.S. House candidate Joseph Arminio was removed from a candidate forum Thursday after repeatedly misgendering Democrat U.S. Rep. Sarah McBride. Dr. Mike Katz, the Republican candidate for Delaware’s U.S. Senate seat, is calling on his fellow party member …
Freerepublic.com · September 18, 2026
Sarah McBride sails toward reelection after advancing unopposed in Delaware Democratic primary
U.S. Rep. Sarah McBride secured the Democratic nomination for a second term representing Delaware on Tuesday without facing a primary challenger. By Wednesday, she was back to emphasizing the work rather than the history.
Advocate.com · September 16, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗