VotePredictor
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Florida District 11 election, 2026

James Pericola vs. Joe Strada on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →

VotePredictor forecast
Joe Strada favored
Lean R · predicted margin R+5.4
81%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+15.8
2026 national environment
D+8.0
District polls
1, averaging EVEN
Forecast spread
±6.1 points

Margin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (open seat: none). The 1 district poll are blended in by inverse variance, about 39% of the weight: the model alone said R+8.9.

Democratic

James Pericola

Major-party general-election nominee.

Republican

Joe Strada

Major-party general-election nominee.

Other listed candidates

  • Ralph Groves · Libertarian

Polls

The polls behind it

1 poll · newest first

Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).

PollsterDateMargin
MDW Communications (via Wikipedia)07-29EVEN

These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 39% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.

Campaign money

FEC reports through October 14, 2026
Joe StradaREP$5.5M raised
Spent $4.7MCash on hand $860kDebts $5.0M0% from donors under $200Self-funded $5.0M
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. STRADA, JOE$5.0M
  2. ELECTING MAJORITY MAKING EFFECTIVE REPUBLICANS PAC$10k
  3. GRABEL, JOSHUA$7k
  4. GRABEL, LACY$7k
  5. MATHENY, KYLE$7k

Industries

  1. Legal & Professional Services$63k
  2. Homemaker$33k
  3. Retired$18k
  4. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$17k
  5. Technology & Communications$7k

States

  1. FL$315k
  2. GA$14k
  3. PA$12k
  4. TX$11k
  5. IL$9k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗
James PericolaDEM$226k raised
Spent $191kCash on hand $35kDebts $60k6% from donors under $200Self-funded $65k
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. PERICOLA, JAMES$65k
  2. MCGOWAN, JOHN B JR.$7k
  3. SIMON, DEBORAH$7k
  4. WAGNER, JOSHUA$7k
  5. BUNDZA, COREY$6k

Industries

  1. Unemployed$44k
  2. Self-Employed & Freelance$14k
  3. Legal & Professional Services$12k
  4. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$3k
  5. Technology & Communications$2k

States

  1. FL$49k
  2. DC$20k
  3. VA$8k
  4. IN$8k
  5. IL$6k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗

What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for FL-11; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report
View House ratings ↗
Inside Elections
View House ratings ↗
Sabato's Crystal Ball
View House analysis ↗

Candidate news

No recent verified candidate stories are available in the site's news feed for this race yet.

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: FL-10 · FL-12