Democratic
Kimberly Overman
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all House races
Florida District 12 election, 2026
Kimberly Overman vs. Gus Bilirakis on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Gus Bilirakis favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+9.5
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+15.62026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±6.6 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Gus Bilirakis
Incumbent representative for FL-12. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Branden Scrivener · Independent
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for FL-12. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Gus BilirakisREP · incumbent$2.3M raised
Spent $2.1MCash on hand $254kDebts $55k0% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Self-Employed & Freelance$104k
- Not Reported$82k
- Legal & Professional Services$64k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$61k
- Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals$23k
States
- FL$445k
- NY$104k
- CA$63k
- VA$57k
- DC$30k
Kimberly OvermanDEM$280k raised
Spent $251kCash on hand $30kDebts $31k40% from donors under $200Self-funded $14k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$40k
- Retired$21k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$9k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$4k
- Technology & Communications$3k
States
- FL$79k
- MD$17k
- CT$7k
- MN$7k
- GA$5k
Branden ScrivenerNPA$8k raised
Spent $8kCash on hand $283% from donors under $200Self-funded $7k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$300
States
- FL$950
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for FL-12; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
The GOP's 3-Step Scam: Break the Country, Blame Others, Then Claim Only We Can Fix It
It’s not working any more, this scam Republicans have been running for 45 years, although Trump and many others are trying their best to revive it. Their strategy has always been simple: break things here in America, create chaos and a mess, hurt working clas…
Common Dreams · September 28, 2026
Trump’s Plan to Sell F-35s to Turkey Becomes an Even Greater Disaster
President Trump said in a meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Tuesday that he plans to lift sanctions to allow the country to buy F-35 fighter jets. “We’re going to be taking the sanctions off, OK? I don’t want him to waste his time answering …
The New Republic · July 7, 2026
US: Bipartisan bill against the arms embargo on Cyprus tabled in Congress
The "Ending the Embargo on Cyprus Act" was reintroduced by the leading members of the Congressional Greek Affairs Caucus (Chris Pappas, Gus Bilirakis, Dina Titus and Nicole Malliotaki) The post US: Bipartisan bill against the arms embargo on Cyprus tabled in …
Protothema.gr · July 16, 2025
Congress has questions about 23andMe bankruptcy
Leaders of the House Committee on Energy and Commerce said they are investigating how 23andMe’s bankruptcy might affect customers’ data. Representatives Brett Guthrie, Gus Bilirakis, and Gary Palmer (all Republicans) sent a letter Thursday to the genetic test…
Biztoc.com · April 20, 2025
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗