Democratic
Leela Gray
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Florida District 13 election, 2026
Leela Gray vs. Anna Paulina Luna on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Anna Paulina Luna favored
Lean R · predicted margin R+4.1
78%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+13.42026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
3, averaging R+0.3Forecast spread
±5.3 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). The 3 district polls are blended in by inverse variance, about 54% of the weight: the model alone said R+8.5.
Republican
Anna Paulina Luna
Incumbent representative for FL-13. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Tony D'Arrigo · Independent
Polls
The polls behind it
7 polls · newest firstEach pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).
PollsterDateSampleMargin
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 54% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Anna Paulina LunaREP · incumbent$4.4M raised
Spent $3.7MCash on hand $747k36% from donors under $200Self-funded $97
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$666k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$94k
- Homemaker$22k
- Legal & Professional Services$21k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$17k
States
- FL$531k
- CA$107k
- TX$101k
- NY$27k
- VA$27k
Leela GrayDEM$2.9M raised
Spent $2.3MCash on hand $656kDebts $7k17% from donors under $200Self-funded $7k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$1.1M
- Self-Employed & Freelance$152k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$81k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$57k
- Legal & Professional Services$54k
States
- FL$1.0M
- CA$164k
- NY$154k
- MA$126k
- TX$61k
Tony D'ArrigoIND$28k raised
Spent $3kCash on hand $26k0% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- D'ARRIGO, TONY C$21k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for FL-13; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Florida's 13th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
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Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗