Florida District 13 election, 2026

Leela Gray vs. Anna Paulina Luna on a newly enacted 2026 district map.

VotePredictor forecast

Anna Paulina Luna favored

Likely R · predicted margin R+6.5

89%

chance to win

2024 presidential lean

R+13.4

2026 national environment

D+6.5

District polls

2, averaging R+3.5

Forecast spread

±5.3 points

Margin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). The 2 district polls are blended in by inverse variance, about 54% of the weight: the model alone said R+9.9.

Democratic

Leela Gray

Major-party general-election nominee.

Republican

Anna Paulina Luna

Incumbent representative for FL-13. Voting record, ideology and biography →

Other listed candidates

Tony D'Arrigo · Independent

Polls

The polls behind it

2 polls · newest first

PollsterDateMargin

Hart Research Associates2026-08-27D+1.0

Fabrizio, Lee & Associates2026-07-22R+8.0

These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 54% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for FL-13; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report

View House ratings ↗

Inside Elections

View House ratings ↗

Sabato's Crystal Ball

View House analysis ↗

Past results

Every election in Florida's 13th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.

YearWinnerMargin

2024Anna Paulina Luna(R)R+9.7

2022Anna Paulina Luna(R)R+8.1

2020Charlie Crist(D)D+6.1

2016Charlie Crist(D)D+3.8

2014David W. Jolly(R)R+1.9

2012Charles William Young(R)R+15.1

2008Vern Buchanan(R)R+18.1

2006Vern Buchanan(R)R+0.1

2004Katherine Harris(R)R+10.6

Candidate news

Luna challenger links her to ‘culture of corruption’

Democrat Leela Gray is launching her first ad against Republican Rep. Anna Paulina Luna in Florida, calling her “part of the problem in DC, including the culture of corruption.” Gray, a retired Army Brigadier General, says in the ad first shared with Semafor …

Biztoc.com · September 15, 2026

Transcript: Trump Rages as Awful TV Speech Ratings Humiliate Him Badly

The following is a lightly edited transcript of the September 14 episode of the Daily Blast podcast. Listen to it here.Greg Sargent: This is The Daily Blast from The New Republic, produced and presented by the DSR Network. I’m your host, Greg Sargent.Donald T…

The New Republic · September 14, 2026

One Year After Charlie Kirk’s Death, How Did Everyone Get It So Wrong?

Charlie Kirk’s assassination—and the days immediately following it—saw the ultraconservative agitator go from a tertiary character in MAGA’s youth culture war to an avatar for the right’s ultimate vision for America. He became a patron saint for persecuted pa…

The New Republic · September 10, 2026

Humiliated GOP reveals secret hope for 'embarrassing' convention: 'Hope no one watches'

Republicans arriving in Dallas for President Donald Trump's midterm convention are describing an atmosphere far removed from the triumphant spectacle organizers had planned, with candidates increasingly distancing themselves from the president over fears he c…

Raw Story · September 9, 2026

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: FL-12 · FL-14