Democratic
Kathy Castor
Incumbent representative for FL-14. Voting record, ideology and biography →
← all House races
Florida District 14 election, 2026
Kathy Castor vs. Mike Beltran on a newly enacted 2026 district map.
VotePredictor forecast
Mike Beltran favored
Toss-up · predicted margin R+4.6
62%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+10.62026 national environment
D+6.6District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.8 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Mike Beltran
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Brian Lambert · Libertarian
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for FL-14. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for FL-14; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
Transcript: Trump Polls Turn Brutal as Allies Panic: “Worse than 2006”
The following is a lightly edited transcript of the October 9 episode of the Daily Blast podcast. Listen to it here.Greg Sargent: This is The Daily Blast from The New Republic, produced and presented by the DSR Network. I’m your host, Greg Sargent.Today we’re…
The New Republic · October 8, 2026
Florida GOP nominee blasts 20-year Dem incumbent as a 'socialist' rubber-stamp with 'precious little to show'
Former Florida legislator Mike Beltran seeks to oust 10-term incumbent Kathy Castor in 14th district, arguing she has been ineffective and out of touch with constituents.
Fox News · September 25, 2026
MAGA panics as lifelong Republican vows to support Dems: ‘Bro we need your vote’
Robbie Smither, a Kentucky conservative and former Republican candidate for local office, vowed to vote for a Democrat “for the first time,” prompting former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) to beg him to reconsider.“When I vote for a Democrat, [Florida gubernatorial…
Raw Story · September 22, 2026
Trump rages at 'Evil Cause' sweeping America — but GOP senator leading the charge anyway
WASHINGTON — The rare 2026 issue that draws huge support from Republicans and Democrats in Congress is the same one that’s mobilized many Americans: restrictions on giant data centers.The House has overwhelmingly passed legislation forcing state regulators to…
Raw Story · September 21, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗