Democratic
Kathy Castor
Incumbent representative for FL-14. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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Florida District 14 election, 2026
Kathy Castor vs. Mike Beltran on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Kathy Castor favored
Lean D · predicted margin D+2.4
67%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+10.62026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
3, averaging D+4.7Forecast spread
±5.3 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). The 3 district polls are blended in by inverse variance, about 54% of the weight: the model alone said R+0.4.
Republican
Mike Beltran
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Brian Lambert · Libertarian
Polls
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstEach pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).
PollsterDateSampleMargin
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 54% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Kathy CastorDEM · incumbent$4.9M raised
Spent $4.6MCash on hand $577k9% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$1.1M
- Self-Employed & Freelance$239k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$118k
- Legal & Professional Services$117k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$116k
States
- FL$1.2M
- CA$414k
- NY$213k
- MA$150k
- DC$113k
Mike BeltranREP$2.7M raised
Spent $1000kCash on hand $1.7MDebts $2.0M1% from donors under $200Self-funded $2.0M
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$51k
- Not Reported$37k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$25k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$19k
- Legal & Professional Services$16k
States
- FL$230k
- NY$24k
- TX$8k
- MO$7k
- VA$6k
Brian LambertLIB$17k raised
Spent $15kCash on hand $2k3% from donors under $200Self-funded $2k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$7k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$4k
States
- FL$4k
- CA$4k
- MD$4k
- AZ$500
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for FL-14; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
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Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗