Democratic
Robert People
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Florida District 15 election, 2026
Robert People vs. Laurel Lee on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Laurel Lee favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+13.3
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+20.12026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±6.6 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Laurel Lee
Incumbent representative for FL-15. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for FL-15. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Laurel LeeREP · incumbent$2.7M raised
Spent $1.8MCash on hand $1.3M0% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Legal & Professional Services$55k
- Government Relations and Lobbying Services$44k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$41k
- Retired$33k
- Retail, Food & Consumer Goods$16k
States
- FL$265k
- VA$73k
- DC$35k
- TX$27k
- CA$24k
Robert PeopleDEM$83k raised
Spent $56kCash on hand $27k52% from donors under $200Self-funded $17k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$5k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$2k
- Technology & Communications$2k
- Government$250
- Not Reported$250
States
- FL$20k
- SC$1k
- CA$833
- MA$544
- AZ$500
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for FL-15; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Florida's 15th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Requiring Citizenship To Vote Is A Call To Common Sense: Will It Fall On Deaf Ears?
By Elizabeth Schlueter & Don Palmer via The Daily Signal | July 23, 2026 While most eyes on Washington are focused on the SAVE America Act, a new constitutional amendment is percolating in the halls of Congress. Rep. Laurel Lee, R-Fla., recently proposed a co…
Biztoc.com · July 27, 2026
EXCLUSIVE: GOP Lawmaker Moves To Cut Biden-Era Maritime Red Tape, Boost Key Energy Resource
Republican Florida Rep. Laurel Lee introduced legislation Friday that would help block future Democrat administrations from cracking down on the LNG business.
The Daily Caller · July 25, 2025
Senate Democrats Demand Investigation Into US Citizen's Killing in West Bank
While the two Republican senators from Florida who represented U.S. citizen and Tampa resident Sayfollah Musallet have yet to speak out publicly about his killing in the West Bank earlier this month, 29 of their Democratic colleagues on Thursday demanded the …
Common Dreams · July 24, 2025
Canadian snowbirds could stay visa-free longer in U.S. under proposed bill
Canadian snowbirds could stay longer in the United States without a visa if a bill recently proposed in the U.S. House of Representatives becomes law. The bipartisan bill put forward by Reps. Elise Stefanik of New York, Laurel Lee of Florida and Greg Stanton …
Biztoc.com · May 10, 2025
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗