Florida District 15 election, 2026

Robert People vs. Laurel Lee on a newly enacted 2026 district map.

VotePredictor forecast

Laurel Lee favored

Safe R · predicted margin R+29.0

100%

chance to win

2024 presidential lean

R+20.1

2026 national environment

D+6.3

Model uncertainty

±6.9 points

Fundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.

Democratic

Robert People

Major-party general-election nominee.

Republican

Laurel Lee

Incumbent representative for FL-15. Voting record, ideology and biography →

Polls

No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for FL-15. The forecast above uses fundamentals only.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for FL-15; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report

View House ratings ↗

Inside Elections

View House ratings ↗

Sabato's Crystal Ball

View House analysis ↗

Past results

Every election in Florida's 15th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.

YearWinnerMargin

2022Laurel Lee(R)R+17.1

2020Scott Franklin(R)R+10.8

2018Ross Spano(R)R+6.0

2000David J. Weldon(R)R+19.6

Candidate news

Requiring Citizenship To Vote Is A Call To Common Sense: Will It Fall On Deaf Ears?

By Elizabeth Schlueter & Don Palmer via The Daily Signal | July 23, 2026 While most eyes on Washington are focused on the SAVE America Act, a new constitutional amendment is percolating in the halls of Congress. Rep. Laurel Lee, R-Fla., recently proposed a co…

Biztoc.com · July 27, 2026

EXCLUSIVE: GOP Lawmaker Moves To Cut Biden-Era Maritime Red Tape, Boost Key Energy Resource

Republican Florida Rep. Laurel Lee introduced legislation Friday that would help block future Democrat administrations from cracking down on the LNG business.

The Daily Caller · July 25, 2025

Senate Democrats Demand Investigation Into US Citizen's Killing in West Bank

While the two Republican senators from Florida who represented U.S. citizen and Tampa resident Sayfollah Musallet have yet to speak out publicly about his killing in the West Bank earlier this month, 29 of their Democratic colleagues on Thursday demanded the …

Common Dreams · July 24, 2025

Canadian snowbirds could stay visa-free longer in U.S. under proposed bill

Canadian snowbirds could stay longer in the United States without a visa if a bill recently proposed in the U.S. House of Representatives becomes law. The bipartisan bill put forward by Reps. Elise Stefanik of New York, Laurel Lee of Florida and Greg Stanton …

Biztoc.com · May 10, 2025

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: FL-14 · FL-16