Democratic
Matthew Montavon
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Florida District 17 election, 2026
Matthew Montavon vs. Greg Steube on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Greg Steube favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+17.2
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+22.22026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±6.6 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Greg Steube
Incumbent representative for FL-17. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Michael Quirk · Independent
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for FL-17. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Greg SteubeREP · incumbent$1.6M raised
Spent $1.0MCash on hand $2.1M9% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Not Reported$145k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$29k
- Legal & Professional Services$20k
- Government Relations and Lobbying Services$20k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$19k
States
- FL$261k
- VA$37k
- CA$23k
- DC$15k
- NV$10k
Matthew MontavonDEM$156k raised
Spent $131kCash on hand $25kDebts $33k23% from donors under $200Self-funded $39k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$51k
- Unemployed$11k
- Retail, Food & Consumer Goods$3k
- Technology & Communications$1k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$250
States
- FL$54k
- MD$6k
- CO$5k
- CA$4k
- MA$3k
Michael QuirkNPA$32k raised
Spent $29kCash on hand $3kDebts $18k0% from donors under $200Self-funded $32k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- QUIRK, MICHAEL$10k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for FL-17; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
Greg Steube joins race for No. 3 spot in House GOP
Rep. Greg Steube is running for GOP Conference Chair — and out with a harsh message for the current leadership team about Tuesday’s loss. “Republicans didn’t lose because we were too conservative. We lost because we failed to deliver on the conservative polic…
Biztoc.com · November 5, 2026
GOP Rep. Greg Steube Tells Leadership to Step Aside After Midterm Bloodbath: You're 'Embarrassingly Weak'
GOP Rep. Greg Steube of Florida is urging Republican leadership to step aside after the midterm bloodbath for the party. The post GOP Rep. Greg Steube Tells Leadership to Step Aside After Midterm Bloodbath: You’re ‘Embarrassingly Weak’ appeared first on Breit…
Breitbart News · November 4, 2026
EXCLUSIVE: Florida Congressman Looks To Crack Down On Warrantless Flock Surveillance
Rep. Greg Steube introduced the FLAFO Act to restrict police use of Flock Safety license plate cameras without a warrant.
The Daily Caller · September 24, 2026
GOP Rep. Steube: 'The House Majority Could Flow Through the Great State of Florida'
Tuesday on Fox Business Network's "The Evening Edit," Rep. Greg Steube (R-FL) reacted to the election results in Florida, noting that his state showed some positive signs for Republicans. The post GOP Rep. Steube: ‘The House Majority Could Flow Through the Gr…
Breitbart News · August 19, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗