Democratic
Matthew Montavon
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Florida District 17 election, 2026
Matthew Montavon vs. Greg Steube on a newly enacted 2026 district map.
VotePredictor forecast
Greg Steube favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+16.3
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+22.22026 national environment
D+6.6District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.8 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Greg Steube
Incumbent representative for FL-17. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Michael Quirk · Independent
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for FL-17. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for FL-17; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
EXCLUSIVE: Florida Congressman Looks To Crack Down On Warrantless Flock Surveillance
Rep. Greg Steube introduced the FLAFO Act to restrict police use of Flock Safety license plate cameras without a warrant.
The Daily Caller · September 24, 2026
GOP Rep. Steube: 'The House Majority Could Flow Through the Great State of Florida'
Tuesday on Fox Business Network's "The Evening Edit," Rep. Greg Steube (R-FL) reacted to the election results in Florida, noting that his state showed some positive signs for Republicans. The post GOP Rep. Steube: ‘The House Majority Could Flow Through the Gr…
Breitbart News · August 19, 2026
Congressman calls for impeaching dead federal judge
Senior U.S. District Judge John E. "Jay" Steele, who served on the federal court for the Middle District of Florida, died July 14. And one day later, U.S. Rep. Greg Steube, a Republican from Sarasota, Florida, introduced articles of impeachment against him.
Abajournal.com · July 24, 2026
Florida congressman moves to impeach judge who ordered convicted Cuban plane hijacker freed from ICE
Congressman Greg Steube filed an impeachment article against Judge John E. Steele for ordering a convicted Cuban plane hijacker's release from ICE.
Fox News · July 16, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗