Florida District 16 election, 2026

Kelly Kirschner vs. Sydney Gruters on a newly enacted 2026 district map.

VotePredictor forecast

Sydney Gruters favored

Safe R · predicted margin R+21.7

100%

chance to win

2024 presidential lean

R+13.8

2026 national environment

D+6.3

Model uncertainty

±6.9 points

Fundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.

Democratic

Kelly Kirschner

Major-party general-election nominee.

Republican

Sydney Gruters

Major-party general-election nominee.

Other listed candidates

Mark Davis · Independent

Polls

No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for FL-16. The forecast above uses fundamentals only.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for FL-16; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report

View House ratings ↗

Inside Elections

View House ratings ↗

Sabato's Crystal Ball

View House analysis ↗

Past results

Every election in Florida's 16th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.

YearWinnerMargin

2020Vern Buchanan(R)R+11.0

2018Vern Buchanan(R)R+9.1

2012Vern Buchanan(R)R+7.2

2008Thomas J. Rooney(R)R+20.2

2006Tim Mahoney(D)D+1.9

Candidate news

No recent verified candidate stories are available in the site's news feed for this race yet.

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: FL-15 · FL-17