VotePredictor
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Florida District 16 election, 2026

Kelly Kirschner vs. Sydney Gruters on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →

VotePredictor forecast
Sydney Gruters favored
Lean R · predicted margin R+4.3
79%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+13.8
2026 national environment
D+8.0
District polls
2, averaging R+2.4
Forecast spread
±5.3 points

Margin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (open seat: none). The 2 district polls are blended in by inverse variance, about 54% of the weight: the model alone said R+6.6.

Democratic

Kelly Kirschner

Major-party general-election nominee.

Republican

Sydney Gruters

Major-party general-election nominee.

Other listed candidates

  • Mark Davis · Independent

Polls

The polls behind it

2 polls · newest first

Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).

PollsterDateMargin
Public Policy PollingGrade A-10-02R+4.0
Sea Polling (via Wikipedia)08-29D+1.0

These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 54% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.

Campaign money

FEC reports through October 14, 2026
Sydney GrutersREP$1.6M raised
Spent $1.4MCash on hand $252k0% from donors under $200Self-funded $7k
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. GOP WINNING WOMEN 2026$30k
  2. TEAM SYDNEY$18k
  3. WANEK, RONALD$14k
  4. LIBERTORE, DOUGLAS$11k
  5. AMERICAN INSTITUTE OF CERTIFIED PUBLIC ACCOUNTANTS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE$10k

Industries

  1. Retired$182k
  2. Self-Employed & Freelance$130k
  3. Legal & Professional Services$44k
  4. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$43k
  5. Homemaker$28k

States

  1. FL$1.0M
  2. TX$37k
  3. NY$25k
  4. VA$19k
  5. CA$18k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗
Kelly KirschnerDEM$876k raised
Spent $615kCash on hand $261kDebts $87313% from donors under $200Self-funded $502
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. RISSER, BUD$11k
  2. BAKER, REBECCA$7k
  3. DE LA TORRE, MARIA$7k
  4. FRANKLIN, KELLY$7k
  5. HUISKING, CHARLES$7k

Industries

  1. Unemployed$378k
  2. Retired$72k
  3. Self-Employed & Freelance$70k
  4. Legal & Professional Services$22k
  5. Not Reported$10k

States

  1. FL$641k
  2. CA$21k
  3. GA$17k
  4. IL$12k
  5. MA$8k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗
Mark DavisNPA$67k raised
Spent $65kCash on hand $2kDebts $8k65% from donors under $200Self-funded $9k
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. DAVIS, MARK$2k
  2. KARNS, JENNIFER$2k
  3. DION, TAMERA$1k
  4. MAJOR-HALLERDIN, RITA$1k
  5. CANCRO, DAN$981

Industries

  1. Retired$5k
  2. Homemaker$950
  3. Unemployed$500
  4. Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals$244
  5. Self-Employed & Freelance$156

States

  1. FL$5k
  2. NY$2k
  3. NC$1k
  4. AZ$500
  5. DC$500
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗

What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for FL-16; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report
View House ratings ↗
Inside Elections
View House ratings ↗
Sabato's Crystal Ball
View House analysis ↗

Past results

Every election in Florida's 16th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.

YearWinnerMargin
2020Vern Buchanan(R)R+11.0
2018Vern Buchanan(R)R+9.1
2012Vern Buchanan(R)R+7.2
2008Thomas J. Rooney(R)R+20.2
2006Tim Mahoney(D)D+1.9

Candidate news

No recent verified candidate stories are available in the site's news feed for this race yet.

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: FL-15 · FL-17