Democratic
James Martin
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Florida District 21 election, 2026
James Martin vs. Brian Mast on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Brian Mast favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+11.6
97%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+16.42026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
1, averaging R+11.0Forecast spread
±6.1 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). The 1 district poll are blended in by inverse variance, about 39% of the weight: the model alone said R+11.9.
Republican
Brian Mast
Incumbent representative for FL-21. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Alexander Cooke · Independent
Polls
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstEach pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).
PollsterDateSampleMargin
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 39% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Brian MastREP · incumbent$5.1M raised
Spent $4.5MCash on hand $2.4M28% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Not Reported$1.1M
- Self-Employed & Freelance$212k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$117k
- Legal & Professional Services$57k
- Unemployed$51k
States
- FL$671k
- CA$312k
- NY$197k
- TX$119k
- NJ$98k
James MartinDEM$822k raised
Spent $771kCash on hand $51kDebts $129k15% from donors under $200Self-funded $150k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- MARTIN, JAMES$100k
- MARTIN, JAMES$50k
- SEAMAN, ELEANOR$14k
- CAMPBELL, JASPER$11k
- RIEPE, JAMES$11k
Industries
- Unemployed$333k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$36k
- Government$21k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$18k
- Defense & Aerospace$13k
States
- FL$412k
- CT$15k
- MD$13k
- CA$13k
- DC$12k
Alexander CookeNPA$30k raised
Spent $29kCash on hand $1kDebts $20k12% from donors under $200Self-funded $23k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$1k
States
- FL$3k
- SC$1k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for FL-21; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Florida's 21st district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
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Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗