Democratic
James Martin
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Florida District 21 election, 2026
James Martin vs. Brian Mast on a newly enacted 2026 district map.
VotePredictor forecast
Brian Mast favored
Likely R · predicted margin R+10.6
95%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+16.42026 national environment
D+6.5District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.8 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Brian Mast
Incumbent representative for FL-21. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Alexander Cooke · Independent
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for FL-21. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for FL-21; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Florida's 21st district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
Candidate news
Foreign Secy Vikram Misri meets US Congressional delegation, discusses Russia Sanctions Bill and strategic ties
Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri recently met a bipartisan US Congressional delegation led by Representative Brian Mast. Discussions included the Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act and the trajectory of India-US relations. Misri previously held discussions focusin…
The Times of India · September 27, 2026
Trump's empire hinges on his name — but four others threaten to devour it whole
Earlier this year, an apparently highly ambitious Florida state Rep. named Meg Weinberger, a Republican from Palm Beach Gardens, introduced a Florida measure to rename Palm Beach International Airport to the President Donald J. Trump International Airport. No…
Raw Story · August 30, 2026
GOP House Chair Scolds Dem Accusing Rubio of Not Testifying on Iran: ‘Probably Don’t Remember It Because You Missed Half’
Brian Mast scolded Gregory Meeks during a House hearing over the claim that Marco Rubio has avoided testifying before Congress on the Iran war. The post GOP House Chair Scolds Dem Accusing Rubio of Not Testifying on Iran: ‘Probably Don’t Remember It Because Y…
Mediaite · July 22, 2026
House Foreign Affairs Chair: Iran’s Proxies Must Be Tied to Agreement
House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Brian Mast told the Daily Signal that while the current memorandum of understanding with the Iranian regime delivers a win for President Donald Trump’s administration, Iran’s terror proxies—Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Ho…
Daily Signal · June 26, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗