Actual result
R+15.8
Final polls said
R+14.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+11.7
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Florida International University/Univision | R+14.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+11.7 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | The McDonald Group | R+5.0 | 10.8 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida International University/Univision | 2008-10-16 | 410 | R+14.0 | 2 |
| The McDonald Group | 2008-09-29 | 300 | R+5.0 | 11 |