Florida District 22 election, 2026

Pia Dandiya vs. Casey Askar on a newly enacted 2026 district map.

VotePredictor forecast

Casey Askar favored

Lean R · predicted margin R+4.8

76%

chance to win

2024 presidential lean

R+10.4

2026 national environment

D+6.3

Model uncertainty

±6.9 points

Fundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.

Democratic

Pia Dandiya

Major-party general-election nominee.

Republican

Casey Askar

Major-party general-election nominee.

Polls

The polls behind it

1 poll · newest first

PollsterDateMargin

Tavern Research2026-08-12EVEN

Shown for context. The forecast above is fundamentals-only and does not use these polls: tested against 2016–2024, a poll-driven rule beat fundamentals only because of a single wave cycle and reversed without it. See methodology.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for FL-22; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report

View House ratings ↗

Inside Elections

View House ratings ↗

Sabato's Crystal Ball

View House analysis ↗

Past results

Every election in Florida's 22nd district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.

YearWinnerMargin

2012Lois Frankel(D)D+9.3

2010Allen West(R)R+8.7

2006Ron Klein(D)D+3.8

2002E. Clay Shaw(R)R+22.4

2000E. Clay Shaw(R)R+0.3

Candidate news

No recent verified candidate stories are available in the site's news feed for this race yet.

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: FL-21 · FL-23