Democratic
Pia Dandiya
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Florida District 22 election, 2026
Pia Dandiya vs. Casey Askar on a newly enacted 2026 district map.
VotePredictor forecast
Casey Askar favored
Lean R · predicted margin R+2.7
67%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+10.42026 national environment
D+6.6District polls
1, averaging EVENForecast spread
±6.1 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (open seat: none). The 1 district poll are blended in by inverse variance, about 39% of the weight: the model alone said R+4.4.
Republican
Casey Askar
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMargin
Tavern Research2026-08-12EVEN
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 39% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for FL-22; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Florida's 22nd district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
No recent verified candidate stories are available in the site's news feed for this race yet.
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗