Democratic
Seth Harp
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Florida District 3 election, 2026
Seth Harp vs. Kat Cammack on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Kat Cammack favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+15.5
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+21.32026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±6.6 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Kat Cammack
Incumbent representative for FL-3. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Mike Klein · Independent
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for FL-3. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Kat CammackREP · incumbent$2.4M raised
Spent $2.0MCash on hand $962k20% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Not Reported$174k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$62k
- Legal & Professional Services$18k
- Government Relations and Lobbying Services$16k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$13k
States
- FL$312k
- MD$38k
- CA$31k
- VA$29k
- TX$25k
Seth HarpDEM$172k raised
Spent $128kCash on hand $44kDebts $73565% from donors under $200Self-funded $1k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$30k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$2k
- Retired$2k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$500
- Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals$500
States
- FL$51k
- VA$4k
- CA$1k
- CT$500
- NY$500
Mike KleinNPA$121k raised
Spent $108kCash on hand $12kDebts $50k4% from donors under $200Self-funded $85k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Not Reported$9k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$6k
- Retired$5k
- Unemployed$1k
- Education & Academia$500
States
- FL$11k
- VA$9k
- MD$5k
- NC$2k
- CA$1k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for FL-3; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Florida's 3rd district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Capitol agenda: Congress tries again to police itself
Reps. Kat Cammack and Teresa Leger Fernández are leading a bipartisan effort to fundamentally change how sexual misconduct and other bad behavior in Congress is investigated and eradicated. But the goal of changing Congress’ workplace culture could hit a wal…
Biztoc.com · August 17, 2026
GOP Rep. Says Congress Has A Sexual Misconduct Problem: ‘If You’re Looking For Love, I Suggest You Look Elsewhere’
“I wouldn’t feel comfortable sending my daughter to work here on Capitol Hill,” Rep. Kat Cammack (R-Fl.) said.
HuffPost · July 23, 2026
GOP Rep. Kat Cammack pitches mandatory background checks for Congress staffers over claims foreign agents running wild
WASHINGTON — Rep. Kat Cammack (R-Fla.) is calling for all congressional staff to undergo background checks and dishing on growing foreign influence campaigns that she describes as “the worst kept secret on Capitol Hill.” Cammack has introduced a resolution th…
Freerepublic.com · July 23, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗