Democratic
Phil Ehr
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Florida District 28 election, 2026
Phil Ehr vs. Carlos Giménez on a newly enacted 2026 district map.
VotePredictor forecast
Carlos Giménez favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+19.6
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+25.62026 national environment
D+6.6District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.8 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Carlos Giménez
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Eddy Rojas · Independent
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for FL-28. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for FL-28; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Florida's 28th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
No recent verified candidate stories are available in the site's news feed for this race yet.
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗