Democratic
LaShonda Holloway
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Florida District 4 election, 2026
LaShonda Holloway vs. Aaron Bean on a newly enacted 2026 district map.
VotePredictor forecast
Aaron Bean favored
Likely R · predicted margin R+6.0
85%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+12.02026 national environment
D+6.6District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.8 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Aaron Bean
Incumbent representative for FL-4. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Todd Schaefer · Independent
- Mike Sell · Florida Forward
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for FL-4. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for FL-4; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Florida's 4th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
Candidate news
Aaron Bean to host health care summit on prescription drug policy
Leaders for the Florida Hospital Association and Moffitt Cancer Center will be among experts making a case on the Hill.
Florida Politics · February 5, 2026
Republicans burned as mass grant cancellation wipes out their own road projects
Republicans set out to eliminate "equity" programs as part of President Donald Trump's cultural agenda — but many of those programs, including the "neighborhood access and equity" initiative, turned out to be important infrastructure projects in their own sta…
Raw Story · August 26, 2025
EXCLUSIVE: Rep. Bean To Strengthen Penalty For Attacks On Police Dogs, Horses
Republican Florida Rep. Aaron Bean is a bill Tuesday to intensify prison sentences for people who assault or injure police dogs and horses in the line of duty.
The Daily Caller · July 18, 2025
GOP lawmakers move to codify DOGE to block left's lawfare
A group of Republican lawmakers plans to introduce legislation that would codify President Donald Trump's executive order that established the Department of Government Efficiency.If passed, the legislation would help to block the DOGE from the left's lawfare …
TheBlaze · March 19, 2025
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗