Democratic
Ellie Gilbreath
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Idaho District 2 election, 2026
Ellie Gilbreath vs. Mike Simpson. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Mike Simpson favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+19.5
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+27.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
1, averaging R+15.0Forecast spread
±6.1 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). The 1 district poll are blended in by inverse variance, about 39% of the weight: the model alone said R+22.4.
Republican
Mike Simpson
Incumbent representative for ID-2. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Tripp Hutchinson · Independent
- Emre Houser · Independent
- Will Johanson · Libertarian
Polls
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstEach pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).
PollsterDateSampleMargin
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 39% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Mike SimpsonREP · incumbent$1.4M raised
Spent $1.2MCash on hand $301k0% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Government$120k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$57k
- Government Relations and Lobbying Services$28k
- Legal & Professional Services$24k
- Energy, Utilities & Mining$20k
States
- ID$182k
- CA$95k
- DC$88k
- VA$66k
- MD$33k
Ellie GilbreathDEM$169k raised
Spent $133kCash on hand $37k20% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$57k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$14k
- Not Reported$6k
- Technology & Communications$5k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$4k
States
- ID$89k
- CA$19k
- CO$7k
- TX$4k
- MA$4k
Tripp HutchinsonIND$8k raised
Spent $2kCash on hand $7k11% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Self-Employed & Freelance$6k
States
- ID$7k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for ID-2; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Idaho's 2nd district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Trump's arch placed on notice by senior Republican who'd have to pay for it
A senior Republican on the House Appropriations Committee is pushing back on the idea that federal money, particularly Pentagon funding, should go toward building President Donald Trump's planned triumphal arch near the Lincoln Memorial.Rep. Mike Simpson (R-I…
Raw Story · September 21, 2026
Here’s How Many Republicans Have Publicly Denounced Trump’s Media Ban
So far, only one Republican lawmaker has publicly condemned President Donald Trump’s decision to ban three major news outlets from the White House. Idaho Representative Mike Simpson told Punchbowl News Monday that restricting CNN, MS NOW, and Politico’s acces…
The New Republic · September 21, 2026
Senior GOP appropriator pours cold water on funding Trump’s arch
Idaho Rep. Mike Simpson, a senior Appropriations Committee Republican, questioned whether federal funds should be spent on construction of President Donald Trump’s triumphal arch, which the president claimed over the weekend could be used for military purpose…
Biztoc.com · September 21, 2026
An ugly radioactive surprise is buried deep inside Trump's deal for a loyal MAGA state
One of the most critical issues facing Idaho is one that has received little attention but has profound consequences for the future of our state – the agreement that would make Idaho the dumping ground for a third of the radioactive waste generated in our cou…
Raw Story · September 9, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗