Democratic
Ellie Gilbreath
Major-party general-election nominee.
VotePredictor forecast
Mike Simpson favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+28.3
100%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+26.02026 national environment
D+6.3Model uncertainty
±6.9 pointsFundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.
Republican
Mike Simpson
Incumbent representative for ID-2. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Emre Houser · Independent
- Tripp Hutchinson · Independent
- Will Johanson · Libertarian
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for ID-2. The forecast above uses fundamentals only.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for ID-2; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Idaho's 2nd district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Trump's arch placed on notice by senior Republican who'd have to pay for it
A senior Republican on the House Appropriations Committee is pushing back on the idea that federal money, particularly Pentagon funding, should go toward building President Donald Trump's planned triumphal arch near the Lincoln Memorial.Rep. Mike Simpson (R-I…
Raw Story · Yesterday
Here’s How Many Republicans Have Publicly Denounced Trump’s Media Ban
So far, only one Republican lawmaker has publicly condemned President Donald Trump’s decision to ban three major news outlets from the White House. Idaho Representative Mike Simpson told Punchbowl News Monday that restricting CNN, MS NOW, and Politico’s acces…
The New Republic · Yesterday
Senior GOP appropriator pours cold water on funding Trump’s arch
Idaho Rep. Mike Simpson, a senior Appropriations Committee Republican, questioned whether federal funds should be spent on construction of President Donald Trump’s triumphal arch, which the president claimed over the weekend could be used for military purpose…
Biztoc.com · Yesterday
An ugly radioactive surprise is buried deep inside Trump's deal for a loyal MAGA state
One of the most critical issues facing Idaho is one that has received little attention but has profound consequences for the future of our state – the agreement that would make Idaho the dumping ground for a third of the radioactive waste generated in our cou…
Raw Story · September 9, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗