VotePredictor
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Idaho District 1 election, 2026

Kaylee Peterson vs. Russ Fulcher. Today's article: every forecast for this race →

VotePredictor forecast
Russ Fulcher favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+27.9
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+45.0
2026 national environment
D+8.0
District polls
3, averaging R+17.3
Forecast spread
±5.3 points

Margin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). The 3 district polls are blended in by inverse variance, about 54% of the weight: the model alone said R+40.2.

Democratic

Kaylee Peterson

Major-party general-election nominee.

Other listed candidates

  • Sarah Zabel · Independent
  • Brendan Gomez · Constitution

Polls

The polls behind it

3 polls · newest first

Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).

PollsterDateMargin
VoteNexus Research (via Wikipedia)10-22R+26.0
Change Research (via Wikipedia)Grade B-07-30R+21.0
SurveyUSA (via Wikipedia)Grade A07-14R+5.0

These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 54% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.

Campaign money

FEC reports through October 14, 2026
Russ FulcherREP · incumbent$848k raised
Spent $818kCash on hand $210k3% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. ROOPE, CALEB$14k
  2. NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS PAC$9k
  3. LAVE, DENNY$9k
  4. BRINGING REPUBLICAN EXCELLENCE TO TOWN PAC$8k
  5. AHLQUIST, TOMMY$7k

Industries

  1. Retired$138k
  2. Self-Employed & Freelance$31k
  3. Not Reported$11k
  4. Manufacturing & Industrial$9k
  5. Homemaker$7k

States

  1. ID$331k
  2. TX$23k
  3. FL$12k
  4. WA$9k
  5. DC$7k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗
Kaylee PetersonDEM$279k raised
Spent $260kCash on hand $24k36% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. TURNER, GERRY$7k
  2. EASTLAKE, SUSAN$6k
  3. MACHINISTS NON PARTISAN POLITICAL LEAGUE MULTI CANDIDATE COMMITTEE$5k
  4. HICKS, MICHELLE$5k
  5. VOCCOLA, TOM$4k

Industries

  1. Retired$66k
  2. Unemployed$59k
  3. Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$5k
  4. Self-Employed & Freelance$2k
  5. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$2k

States

  1. ID$148k
  2. WA$2k
  3. OR$750
  4. VA$500
  5. WY$500
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗
Sarah ZabelIND$272k raised
Spent $210kCash on hand $62kDebts $176k7% from donors under $200Self-funded $209k
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. ZABEL, SARAH$63k
  2. HOHLE, ROGER$4k
  3. KUHN, NANCY$4k
  4. MEADOWS, ROBERT$4k
  5. MEADOWS, VALERIE$4k

Industries

  1. Not Reported$15k
  2. Retired$14k
  3. Self-Employed & Freelance$4k
  4. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$800
  5. Defense & Aerospace$500

States

  1. ID$13k
  2. WA$9k
  3. UT$4k
  4. OH$4k
  5. CO$3k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗

What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for ID-1; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report
View House ratings ↗
Inside Elections
View House ratings ↗
Sabato's Crystal Ball
View House analysis ↗

Past results

Every election in Idaho's 1st district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.

YearWinnerMargin
2016Raúl R. Labrador(R)R+36.4
2010Raúl R. Labrador(R)R+9.7
2008Walt Minnick(D)D+1.2
2006William T. Sali(R)R+5.2
1998Helen Chenoweth(R)R+10.5

Candidate news

This Republican hero would be appalled by GOP's moral decay

Imagine the shock, dismay and disgust Abraham Lincoln might feel about the state and national leadership of his beloved Republican Party, if he were to return to life today. He would find a leadership of the Grand Old Party dedicated to white nationalism, nat…

Raw Story · March 5, 2026
These Republican cowards won't call out Trump even as he decimates their state

There was a time in the distant past when Idaho elected officials had moral compasses and were dedicated to serving the interests of the Gem State. Since agriculture is so important to the Idaho economy, they were constantly on guard against federal plans and…

Raw Story · October 29, 2025
GOP congressman to reintroduce bill to eliminate taxes on overtime pay

A Republican congressman is reintroducing legislation Wednesday that would eliminate taxes on overtime pay, an idea that has gained momentum among some lawmakers after President-elect Trump touted it on the campaign trail. Rep. Russ Fulcher (R-Idaho) is set t…

Biztoc.com · January 15, 2025
These 38 Republicans voted against the Trump-backed spending bill

Thirty-eight House Republican lawmakers voted against the President-elect Trump-backed government spending bill that failed to clear the lower chamber with just more than a day before the shutdown. These GOP representatives voted Thursday against the measure …

Freerepublic.com · December 20, 2024

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: IA-4 · ID-2