Democratic
Lauren Underwood
Incumbent representative for IL-14. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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Illinois District 14 election, 2026
Lauren Underwood vs. James Marter. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Lauren Underwood favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+14.4
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+5.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.2 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
James Marter
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for IL-14. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Lauren UnderwoodDEM · incumbent$2.8M raised
Spent $2.7MCash on hand $1.2M12% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$810k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$164k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$110k
- Legal & Professional Services$98k
- Education & Academia$75k
States
- IL$875k
- CA$251k
- NY$146k
- MA$126k
- DC$84k
James MarterREP$214k raised
Spent $180kCash on hand $38kDebts $32k17% from donors under $200Self-funded $525
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$105k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$20k
- Wholesale & Distribution$5k
- Manufacturing & Industrial$3k
- Education & Academia$2k
States
- IL$78k
- TX$35k
- FL$24k
- NY$9k
- WA$4k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for IL-14; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Illinois's 14th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
2 House Democrats face off for leadership slot that isn’t even open yet
A fierce internal battle is developing among House Democrats for a job that might not even be open next Congress. Reps. Sara Jacobs of California and Lauren Underwood of Illinois are expected to seek the caucus vice chair post. The job is currently held by Re…
Biztoc.com · September 3, 2026
Iconic Moments From “All Roads Lead to the South” March
Thousands gathered in Alabama this weekend for the “All Roads Lead to the South” National Day of Action for Voting Rights march, a sweeping mobilization focused on voting rights, equal representation, and the future of democracy for Black communities across t…
The Root · May 17, 2026
Democrats Officially File Articles of Impeachment Against Pete Hegseth
Democrats are mounting a formal opposition to oust Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. Arizona Representative Yassamin Ansari filed six articles of impeachment against the Pentagon chief Wednesday, accusing Hegseth of repeatedly violating his constitutional oath.…
The New Republic · April 15, 2026
How Personal Loss Drove Rep. Lauren Underwood to Take On the Black Maternal Health Crisis
Excerpted from Stuck: How Money, Media and Violence Prevent Change in Congress by Maya L. Kornberg (published March 10) The post How Personal Loss Drove Rep. Lauren Underwood to Take On the Black Maternal Health Crisis appeared first on Ms. Magazine.
Ms. Magazine · April 3, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗