Democratic
Sean Casten
Incumbent representative for IL-6. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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Illinois District 6 election, 2026
Sean Casten vs. Niki Conforti. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Sean Casten favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+13.7
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+5.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.2 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Niki Conforti
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for IL-6. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Sean CastenDEM · incumbent$2.5M raised
Spent $2.2MCash on hand $1.0MDebts $456k8% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- DOUGLAS, SANDHYA$14k
- VAN VALZAH, EILEEN MAY$12k
- ANDERSON, KEITH$11k
- LEWIS, CHARLES A$11k
- NOVAK, MARK$11k
Industries
- Not Reported$707k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$71k
- Legal & Professional Services$62k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$49k
- Education & Academia$32k
States
- IL$958k
- MA$86k
- CA$63k
- NY$43k
- DC$37k
Niki ConfortiREP$348k raised
Spent $346kCash on hand $8k58% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$79k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$16k
- Legal & Professional Services$5k
- Wholesale & Distribution$4k
- Not Reported$2k
States
- IL$78k
- FL$15k
- TX$8k
- CA$6k
- TN$4k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for IL-6; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Illinois's 6th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
Candidate news
Where the Hell Is the Oil Money Trump Stole From the People of Venezuela?
At any other time in American history, it would end the career of somebody like Scott Bessent, our limited-intelligence Treasury Secretary. It came out yesterday when Illinois Congressman Sean Casten was questioning him about the “billions of dollars” that Tr…
Common Dreams · September 18, 2026
The Coming Census Time Bomb
In late April, Virginia voters narrowly approved an aggressive gerrymander that would have given Democrats a largely unbeatable advantage in 10 of the commonwealth’s 11 U.S. House seats, counteracting GOP power plays in Ohio, Missouri, and North Carolina. Dem…
The New Republic · June 30, 2026
Is the USA Backing Away Further From the Protection of Palestinian Rights?
Two members of the US Congress—Rep. Rosa Delauro and Rep. Sean Casten—have been in the forefront of drawing attention to the violations of rights of the people of West Bank. At a time of a visit to West … The post Is the USA Backing Away Further From the Prot…
Globalresearch.ca · May 30, 2026
Sean Casten wins Democratic nomination for U.S. House in Illinois' 6th Congressional District
Sean Casten wins Democratic nomination for U.S. House in Illinois' 6th Congressional District
Abcnews.com · March 18, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗