Democratic
Drew Cox
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Indiana District 4 election, 2026
Drew Cox vs. Jim Baird. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Jim Baird favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+21.3
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+29.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±6.6 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Jim Baird
Incumbent representative for IN-4. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for IN-4. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Jim BairdREP · incumbent$605k raised
Spent $709kCash on hand $110kDebts $504k13% from donors under $200Self-funded $120k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Self-Employed & Freelance$20k
- Retired$11k
- Legal & Professional Services$10k
- Homemaker$4k
- Not Reported$2k
States
- IN$70k
- NC$6k
- NH$3k
- OH$3k
- MN$2k
Drew CoxDEM$61k raised
Spent $54kCash on hand $7kDebts $50037% from donors under $200Self-funded $500
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- COX, CYNTHIA$3k
- REDMOND, RALPH$3k
- GUMP, BOB$2k
- MAY, EDWARD$2k
- STEVENS, KYLE$2k
Industries
- Unemployed$10k
- Retired$5k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$3k
- Legal & Professional Services$1k
- Government$1k
States
- IN$23k
- IL$2k
- CA$2k
- AE$1k
- MI$1k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for IN-4; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
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Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗