Democratic
Drew Cox
Major-party general-election nominee.
VotePredictor forecast
Jim Baird favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+24.0
100%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+29.02026 national environment
D+5.5Model uncertainty
±6.9 pointsFundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.
Republican
Jim Baird
Incumbent representative for IN-4. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for IN-4. The forecast above therefore uses fundamentals only. A poll table will appear here when matched polls are available.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for IN-4; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
'It's a problem': GOP struggling to rein in elderly lawmakers who won't step aside
While Democrats grapple with a generational push to oust elderly lawmakers, Republicans are confronting their own severe aging problem — with the party led by a 79-year-old president and dominated by lawmakers in their 70s and 80s who show no signs of steppin…
Raw Story · May 26, 2026
How Trump can fix his endorsement problem
You might not know it by watching algorithmically approved conservative media, but we are in the thick of primary season, with important red-state primaries taking place nearly every Tuesday. In most states, the primary outcomes these weeks will be of greater…
TheBlaze · May 15, 2026
Crypto Allies Gain Ground In Congress After Indiana Primary Win
A war chest of $193 million. That’s what Fairshake, the crypto industry’s most powerful political action committee, reported holding as of January — and it’s spending that money fast. Related Reading: Bitcoin Mining Could Transform Colombia’s Caribbean Region…
Bitcoinist · May 8, 2026
Crypto-backed Republican candidate wins Indiana congressional primary
Defend American Jobs, a Super PAC affiliated with the crypto-backed political action committee Fairshake, spent more than $500,000 to support Republican James Baird ahead of his Tuesday primary in Indiana, which he won with 60% of the vote.
Cointelegraph · May 6, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗