Democratic
J. D. Ford
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Indiana District 5 election, 2026
J. D. Ford vs. Victoria Spartz. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Victoria Spartz favored
Likely R · predicted margin R+6.6
89%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+17.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
3, averaging R+1.9Forecast spread
±5.3 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). The 3 district polls are blended in by inverse variance, about 54% of the weight: the model alone said R+12.0.
Republican
Victoria Spartz
Incumbent representative for IN-5. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstEach pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).
PollsterDateSampleMargin
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 54% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Victoria SpartzREP · incumbent$2.2M raised
Spent $1.9MCash on hand $515kDebts $650k22% from donors under $200Self-funded $475k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Not Reported$355k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$49k
- Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals$49k
- Retired$23k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$21k
States
- IN$397k
- FL$86k
- TX$74k
- CA$37k
- NY$34k
J. D. FordDEM$1.4M raised
Spent $1.1MCash on hand $325k17% from donors under $200Self-funded $616
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$421k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$61k
- Legal & Professional Services$34k
- Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals$29k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$14k
States
- IN$851k
- IL$15k
- FL$12k
- CA$11k
- GA$8k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for IN-5; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Indiana's 5th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
Candidate news
JUST IN: Indiana GOP Rep. Victoria Spartz Loses Reelection
Incumbent Rep. The post JUST IN: Indiana GOP Rep. Victoria Spartz Loses Reelection appeared first on The Gateway Pundit.
Thegatewaypundit.com · November 4, 2026
‘Absolutely horrifying drop’ in early returns for GOP rep shocks: ‘Buckle your seatbelts’
The early results of Tuesday's consequential midterm elections shocked one political analyst. Lakshya Jain, who runs political data and polling for The Argument, posted on X that the early voting results in Indiana's 5th Congressional District were a clear si…
Raw Story · November 3, 2026
Polls Close: KY-6 and IN-5
Polls are now closed in parts of Kentucky and Indiana. In KY-6 (R+7) Democrat Zach Dembo is running against Republican Ralph Alvarado. In IN-5 (R+8) Democrat J.D. Ford is trying to unseat incumbent Republican Victoria Spartz. Cook rates KY-6 as a toss-up and …
Lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com · November 3, 2026
Is It the Dems’ Big Night? Watch These Eight Races With Early Results.
One fact that’s generally true about elections is that if the wind is blowing one way in state A, it’s probably blowing in the same direction in states B, C, D, and so on. In 2024, Donald Trump beat Kamala Harris in all seven swing states. They were all close…
The New Republic · November 3, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗