Democratic
Kelly Thompson
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Indiana District 3 election, 2026
Kelly Thompson vs. Marlin Stutzman. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Marlin Stutzman favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+22.8
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+31.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±6.6 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Marlin Stutzman
Incumbent representative for IN-3. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for IN-3. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Marlin StutzmanREP$967k raised
Spent $915kCash on hand $101k10% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$48k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$41k
- Legal & Professional Services$19k
- Homemaker$15k
- Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals$13k
States
- IN$173k
- FL$37k
- NY$18k
- TX$18k
- IL$9k
Kelly ThompsonDEM$347k raised
Spent $293kCash on hand $54k0% from donors under $200Self-funded $19k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$135k
- Retired$64k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$13k
- Not Reported$4k
- Education & Academia$2k
States
- IN$186k
- CA$32k
- FL$8k
- VA$6k
- IL$4k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for IN-3; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Indiana's 3rd district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
Candidate news
WNBA Responds to Congress on How It Defines a Woman
Women’s National Basketball Association (WNBA) Commissioner Cathy Engelbert revealed in a letter that “only women are eligible” to compete in the WNBA. In a letter addressed to Reps. Marlin Stutzman (R-IN), Andy Biggs (R-AZ), Erin Houchin (R-IN), and Zach Nun…
Breitbart News · October 21, 2026
WNBA Faces Pressure to Define ‘Women’ After US Representative Demands Answers
The WNBA is dealing with a rules question that has moved from public discussion into a formal request for answers. The issue arises as the league prepares for a leadership change and reviews a policy that could affect future player eligibility. The latest pus…
Yahoo Entertainment · September 17, 2026
After traffic stop, congressman vows to rein in Flock cameras with legislation
Across the country, opposition to the license plate cameras created by Flock Safety is mounting. Rep. Marlin Stutzman, R-Ind., is vowing to pursue legislation in Congress to rein in the proliferation of Flock cameras by law enforcement after he experienced hi…
Freerepublic.com · August 9, 2026
Skeptical Republican Congressman Now Believes Mitch McConnell Is Alive
A Republican congressman who publicly questioned whether Republican Senator Mitch McConnell is still alive now believes the ailing lawmaker has not died, he told Newsweek on Thursday. Indiana Representative Marlin Stutzman, who criticized the lack of informat…
Biztoc.com · July 16, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗