VotePredictor
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Indiana District 3 election, 2026

Kelly Thompson vs. Marlin Stutzman.

VotePredictor forecast
Marlin Stutzman favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+26.3
100%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+30.8
2026 national environment
D+5.5
Model uncertainty
±6.9 points

Fundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.

Democratic

Kelly Thompson

Major-party general-election nominee.

Polls

No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for IN-3. The forecast above therefore uses fundamentals only. A poll table will appear here when matched polls are available.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for IN-3; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Candidate news

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: IN-2 · IN-4