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Toss-up · 2020 House
Indiana House
In the 2020 Indiana House race, Victoria Spartz (R) won by about 4 points.
Actual result
R+4.1
Final polls said
EVEN
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Change Research | EVEN | 4.1 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 66% | 0.113 | ✓ |
| 2 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 59% | 0.168 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 56% | 0.197 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 6 | The Economist | Dem 54% | 0.296 | ✗ |
| 7 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Change Research2020-10-314
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Indiana House race?
Victoria Spartz (R) won, by about 4.1 points (R+4.1).
When was the 2020 Indiana House election held?
It was held in November 2020.