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Toss-up · 2020 House
Indiana House
In the 2020 Indiana House race, Victoria Spartz (R) won by about 4 points.
Actual result
R+4.1
Final polls said
EVEN
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Change Research | EVEN | 4.1 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 74% | 0.067 | ✓ |
| 2 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 59% | 0.168 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 56% | 0.197 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 6 | The Economist | Dem 54% | 0.296 | ✗ |
| 7 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Change Research2020-10-314
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Indiana House race?
Victoria Spartz (R) won, by about 4.1 points (R+4.1).
When was the 2020 Indiana House election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.