Actual result
R+4.1
Final polls said
EVEN
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
R+3.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+3.8 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Change Research | EVEN | 4.1 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | Rep 75% | 0.061 | ✓ |
| 2 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 59% | 0.168 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 56% | 0.197 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 6 | The Economist | Dem 54% | 0.296 | ✗ |
| 7 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research | 2020-10-31 | 596 | EVEN | 4 |