Democratic
Richard Neal
Incumbent representative for MA-1. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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Massachusetts District 1 election, 2026
Richard Neal vs. Republican nominee TBD. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Richard Neal favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+21.4
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+14.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.2 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Nominee not yet identified
The primary may be unresolved, or the source does not yet list one clear nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Nadia Milleron · Independent
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for MA-1. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Richard NealDEM · incumbent$3.1M raised
Spent $5.1MCash on hand $1.9M0% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$145k
- Legal & Professional Services$57k
- Not Reported$47k
- Unemployed$34k
- Government Relations and Lobbying Services$29k
States
- MA$209k
- NY$76k
- DC$52k
- MD$48k
- CA$47k
Nadia MilleronNPA$1.6M raised
Spent $1.3MCash on hand $310kDebts $575k1% from donors under $200Self-funded $1.5M
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- MILLERON, NADIA$500k
- KAFOURY, GREG$4k
- KAFOURY, JUDITH$4k
- NADER, LAURA$4k
- NAHAS, ANDY$4k
Industries
- Retired$19k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$2k
States
- CA$12k
- MA$10k
- OR$7k
- NY$6k
- TX$3k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for MA-1; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
Democrats see new momentum for plans to tax the rich - Politico
Democrats see new momentum for plans to tax the richPolitico Richard Neal makes Ways and Means chair bid officialPolitico Resurgent Hill Democrats Have Big Decisions To Make On A Tax AgendaForbes Three tax proposals targeting the rich that the new Congress co…
Slashdot.org · Yesterday
How the midterm results could impact your taxes, housing and everyday prices
(Bloomberg) -- Americans handed Democrats a thumping midterm victory on Tuesday, and with it, a mandate to fix their money problems. In survey after survey, voters voiced their anger over the state of the US economy, especially the cost of essentials like foo…
Yahoo Entertainment · Yesterday
Congressman Neal says Garvaghy Road march 'provocative'
US Representative Richard Neal has described the planned Orange Order march along the Garvaghy Road in Portadown as "provocative".
RTE · October 2, 2026
Meeks, Beyer, Neal Statement On Russia Sanctions Legislation
Rep. Gregory W. Meeks, Ranking Member of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, Rep. Don Beyer, Senior House Democrat of Congress' Joint Economic Committee, and Rep. Richard Neal, Ranking Member of the House Committee on Ways and Means, today issued the foll…
Globalsecurity.org · September 11, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗