Democratic
Lori Trahan
Incumbent representative for MA-3. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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Massachusetts District 3 election, 2026
Lori Trahan vs. Gary Grossi. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Lori Trahan favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+26.4
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+19.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.2 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Gary Grossi
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Dennis Conlon · Independent
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for MA-3. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Lori TrahanDEM · incumbent$1.9M raised
Spent $1.5MCash on hand $1.8M0% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$96k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$68k
- Legal & Professional Services$46k
- Government Relations and Lobbying Services$44k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$42k
States
- MA$632k
- DC$72k
- VA$49k
- NY$21k
- MD$17k
Gary GrossiREP$9k raised
Spent $2kCash on hand $7kDebts $4k21% from donors under $200Self-funded $4k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$614
- Self-Employed & Freelance$521
States
- MA$2k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for MA-3; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
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Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗