Democratic
Jake Auchincloss
Incumbent representative for MA-4. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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Massachusetts District 4 election, 2026
Jake Auchincloss vs. Thomas Stalcup. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Jake Auchincloss favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+27.4
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+20.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.2 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Thomas Stalcup
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for MA-4. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Jake AuchinclossDEM · incumbent$3.9M raised
Spent $1.4MCash on hand $7.5M1% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$601k
- Unemployed$551k
- Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals$131k
- Legal & Professional Services$118k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$100k
States
- MA$1.2M
- NY$336k
- CA$258k
- FL$138k
- IL$91k
Thomas StalcupREP$27k raised
Spent $26kCash on hand $1476% from donors under $200Self-funded $17k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$1k
States
- MA$4k
- NY$2k
- IL$520
- KY$520
- NC$500
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for MA-4; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Massachusetts's 4th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Midterms over, Democrats plunge into a wide-open 2028 presidential race
By Tim Reid WASHINGTON, Nov 5 (Reuters) - With the US midterms over, Democrats are turning to what could become one of their most crowded and unpredictable presidential primaries in decades, a 2028 contest likely to expose the party's divide over how to win b…
Yahoo Entertainment · Yesterday
‘AK Guy’ Roasts Dem Congressman Over Ad Supporting Massachusetts Gun Ban
GOP Texas congressional nominee Brandon Herrera called out Dem Massachusetts Rep. Jake Auchincloss over ignorance of federal firearms laws Saturday.
The Daily Caller · October 25, 2026
ICE surge in Fall River sparks anger from congressman, mayor
FALL RIVER — After three days of a federal immigration enforcement surge on the South Coast of Massachusetts, U.S. Rep. Jake Auchincloss gathered with a Fall River priest, the city’s mayor and a nonprofit to discuss what they called a…
The Sun Chronicle · September 24, 2026
Crypto-backed PAC scales back ad spending in Massachusetts primary
Democratic candidate Jason Poulos, running in Massachusetts’ 4th district primary, said a Fairshake PAC had funded “AI-generated slop mailers” to support incumbent Jake Auchincloss.
Cointelegraph · September 1, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗