Democratic
Jake Auchincloss
Incumbent representative for MA-4. Voting record, ideology and biography →
VotePredictor forecast
Jake Auchincloss favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+30.4
100%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
D+22.02026 national environment
D+6.3Model uncertainty
±6.9 pointsFundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.
Republican
Thomas Stalcup
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for MA-4. The forecast above uses fundamentals only.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for MA-4; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Massachusetts's 4th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Crypto-backed PAC scales back ad spending in Massachusetts primary
Democratic candidate Jason Poulos, running in Massachusetts’ 4th district primary, said a Fairshake PAC had funded “AI-generated slop mailers” to support incumbent Jake Auchincloss.
Cointelegraph · September 1, 2026
'Break Up Big Medicine': Taking On Healthcare Industry Greed Could Save US Families $6,000+ a Year
As millions of working-class Americans suffer from President Donald Trump and congressional Republicans' cuts to the already dysfunctional US healthcare system, a leading anti-monopoly group this week released a report with recommendations to restore "afforda…
Common Dreams · August 28, 2026
This Jewish Democrat Voted Against Israel Aid—And Doesn't Regret It
Massachusetts Representative Jake Auchincloss, one of 103 Democrats who voted to cut off military aid to Israel last month, says the pro-Israel lobby's decision to strip his fundraising page from its website is a mark of independence, not a liability. Auchinc…
Biztoc.com · August 25, 2026
Why Democrats Must Embrace a “Mom Populist” Education Agenda
Pease Elementary in downtown Austin, Texas, has sat empty since 2020. Formerly the oldest continuously operating school in Texas, Pease was shuttered by the Austin Independent School District to save money. On a steamy day this summer, the hulking structure p…
The New Republic · August 24, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗