Democratic
Katherine Clark
Incumbent representative for MA-5. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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Massachusetts District 5 election, 2026
Katherine Clark vs. Republican nominee TBD. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Katherine Clark favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+52.4
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+45.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.2 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Nominee not yet identified
The primary may be unresolved, or the source does not yet list one clear nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for MA-5. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Katherine ClarkDEM · incumbent$5.0M raised
Spent $5.1MCash on hand $1.2M2% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$292k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$151k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$78k
- Technology & Communications$57k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$46k
States
- MA$314k
- CA$229k
- NY$141k
- IL$44k
- MD$35k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for MA-5; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Massachusetts's 5th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Katherine Clark launches majority leader bid
Rep. Katherine Clark of Massachusetts officially announced her bid for majority leader in a letter to colleagues Thursday. Clark, currently the No. 2 to Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, is widely considered a shoo-in among her colleagues. She is currently uno…
Biztoc.com · Yesterday
Rep. Katherine Clark says Democrats are on track to win control of the House tonight
NPR's Ailsa Chang speaks with House Democratic Whip Katherine Clark of Massachusetts about tonight's midterm elections.
NPR · November 4, 2026
Democratic Whip Plans Cross-Country Midterm Sprint
Semafor: “Next month, House Minority Whip Katherine Clark is planning a whirlwind tour of districts in California, Michigan, Ohio, New York, Florida, Massachusetts, Nebraska, and Pennsylvania, according to a spokesperson, a sprint that will bring her stops to…
Politicalwire.com · September 29, 2026
Democratic whip plans cross-country midterm sprint
Congressional leaders are hitting the trail in the midterms’ final stretch. Next month, House Minority Whip Katherine Clark is planning a whirlwind tour of districts in California, Michigan, Ohio, New York, Florida, Massachusetts, Nebraska, and Pennsylvania, …
Biztoc.com · September 29, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗