VotePredictor
past elections

Massachusetts House

Niki Tsongas (D) vs Jim Ogonowski (R)

Actual result
D+6.2
Final polls said
D+9.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+9.6
Winner
Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#PollsterFinal callMissCalled
1SurveyUSAD+9.02.8
2VotePredictorD+9.63.4

Polls (2)

PollsterDatenPollMiss
SurveyUSA2007-10-09457D+9.03
SurveyUSA2007-09-08411D+10.04