Actual result
D+6.2
Final polls said
D+9.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+9.6
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+9.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+9.6 | 3.4 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2007-10-09 | 457 | D+9.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2007-09-08 | 411 | D+10.0 | 4 |