Democratic
Johnny Olszewski
Incumbent representative for MD-2. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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Maryland District 2 election, 2026
Johnny Olszewski vs. Dave Wallace. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Johnny Olszewski favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+26.8
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+18.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.2 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Dave Wallace
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for MD-2. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Johnny OlszewskiDEM · incumbent$1.3M raised
Spent $775kCash on hand $682k18% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Self-Employed & Freelance$80k
- Retired$57k
- Unemployed$56k
- Legal & Professional Services$43k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$43k
States
- MD$565k
- FL$27k
- VA$21k
- DC$18k
- MA$10k
Dave WallaceREP$29k raised
Spent $24kCash on hand $5kDebts $1k14% from donors under $200Self-funded $2k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$17k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$520
- Government Relations and Lobbying Services$500
States
- DC$7k
- MD$6k
- CA$4k
- FL$3k
- VA$1k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for MD-2; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Maryland's 2nd district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
Candidate news
This member is so frustrated with Congress he wants voters to sidestep it
At the end of one of the least productive Congresses in modern history, freshman Rep. Johnny Olszewski is so sick of the gridlock on Capitol Hill that he wants voters to bypass it entirely. “It's been a long two years,” the Maryland Democrat said in a Tuesday…
Biztoc.com · October 21, 2026
Trump Bans Dem Governor From Speaking at Rally in His Home State
President Trump is preventing Maryland’s Democratic Governor Wes Moore from speaking at an event in Baltimore County in the state on Tuesday. Defense firm Andruil Industries is announcing that they are building a 2-million-square-foot submarine manufacturing …
The New Republic · October 6, 2026
Trump rages at 'Evil Cause' sweeping America — but GOP senator leading the charge anyway
WASHINGTON — The rare 2026 issue that draws huge support from Republicans and Democrats in Congress is the same one that’s mobilized many Americans: restrictions on giant data centers.The House has overwhelmingly passed legislation forcing state regulators to…
Raw Story · September 21, 2026
Rep. Johnny Olszewski proposes bill for 18-year Supreme Court term limits
Recent polling released by NBC News shows that only 22% of Americans have confidence in the U.S. Supreme Court. In the wake of that growing unpopularity, a new proposal in Congress would amend the Constitution to impose 18-year term limits on Supreme Court ju…
CBS News · May 5, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗