VotePredictor
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Maryland District 8 election, 2026

Jamie Raskin vs. Cheryl Riley.

VotePredictor forecast
Jamie Raskin favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+62.0
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
D+56.0
2026 national environment
D+6.6
District polls
none
Forecast spread
±7.8 points

Margin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.

Republican

Cheryl Riley

Major-party general-election nominee.

Other listed candidates

  • Nancy Wallace · Green

Polls

No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for MD-8. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for MD-8; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Past results

Every election in Maryland's 8th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.

YearWinnerMargin

Candidate news

Lest We Forget the Horrors: An Unending Catalog of Trump’s Cruelties, Collusions, Corruptions, and Crimes: September 2026: Atrocities 1281-1352

Early in President Trump’s first term, McSweeney’s editors began to catalog the head-spinning number of misdeeds coming from his administration. We called this list a collection of Trump’s cruelties, collusions, corruptions, and crimes, and it felt urgent to …

Mcsweeneys.net · October 14, 2026
The Battle Lines Are Forming for the Democrats’ Next Big Fight

If Democrats win back the House of Representatives and the Senate this election, which looks increasingly likely, they have an important and contentious question to face right away: How hard should they go after corporations?Voters are increasingly angry abou…

The New Republic · October 14, 2026
Democrats are candid about what they will do if they get control of the Senate and House – here are their priorities

Control of Congress after the 2026 midterm elections would give Democrats power to subpoena documents and testimony In August, Jamie Raskin renewed his demand that Jared Kushner hand over documents about the overlap between his informal role advising Donald T…

Biztoc.com · October 9, 2026
More of this please

Jamie Raskin gets it: President Donald Trump may get a show at the Smithsonian, though not as he might have hoped. On October 6, representative Jamie Raskin of Maryland introduced a bill directing officials from the Smithsonian Institution to collect and pres…

Lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com · October 8, 2026

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: MD-7 · ME-1