Democratic
Jamie Raskin
Incumbent representative for MD-8. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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Maryland District 8 election, 2026
Jamie Raskin vs. Cheryl Riley. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Jamie Raskin favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+62.9
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+56.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.2 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Cheryl Riley
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Nancy Wallace · Green
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for MD-8. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Jamie RaskinDEM · incumbent$9.3M raised
Spent $6.4MCash on hand $7.9M41% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$2.8M
- Self-Employed & Freelance$436k
- Legal & Professional Services$151k
- Education & Academia$99k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$56k
States
- MD$1.5M
- CA$556k
- NY$358k
- DC$278k
- MA$229k
Cheryl RileyREP$22k raised
Spent $20kCash on hand $3k31% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- AARON, BRIAN$4k
- MOORE, JOE$3k
- NOTT, R$2k
- AIKEN, PAUL$622
- CUDA, DAN$518
Industries
- Retired$5k
- Government$4k
- Not Reported$350
- Self-Employed & Freelance$250
States
- MD$12k
- KS$2k
- TX$518
- HI$259
- OH$208
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for MD-8; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Maryland's 8th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Jamie Raskin Warns Law Firms That Caved to Trump to Watch Out
House Democrats are coming for law firms that cut deals with President Donald Trump. Speaking on MS NOW Wednesday night, Representative Jamie Raskin, who is poised to become chair of the House Judiciary Committee, said that the several law firms that struck d…
The New Republic · November 5, 2026
Crenshaw, Raskin shout each other down in heated post-midterm debate
Texas Republican Rep. Dan Crenshaw and Democratic Maryland Rep. Jamie Raskin clashed in a fiery CNN exchange on Wednesday after the midterm elections.
Fox News · November 5, 2026
‘Time for Some Accountability’: Advocate Says Democrats Must Subpoena Corporate Price-Gougers
After receiving a resounding mandate to act on America’s cost-of-living crisis, Democrats are considering bringing corporate executives before Congress in January.The Washington Sun reported Thursday that House Democrats on the Judiciary and Oversight committ…
Common Dreams · November 5, 2026
'Lawyer up': Democrats prepare to investigate Trump after taking Congress
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) speaks with reporters during an election night watch party in Washington on Nov. 3, 2026. (Tom Brenner / Getty Images) Democrats in Congress gained the power Tuesday night to more forcefully investigate Presiden…
Yahoo Entertainment · November 4, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗