Actual result
D+4.2
Final polls said
R+2.5
2 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cooper & Secrest | D+10.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies Inc. | R+2.0 | 6.2 | ✗ |
| 3 | Potomac Incorporated | R+3.0 | 7.2 | ✗ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Potomac Incorporated | 2002-10-27 | 563 | R+3.0 | 7 |
| Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies Inc. | 2002-10-17 | 333 | R+2.0 | 6 |
| Potomac Incorporated | 2002-09-26 | 563 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| Cooper & Secrest | 2002-09-25 | 511 | D+10.0 | 6 |