Democratic
Chellie Pingree
Incumbent representative for ME-1. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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Maine District 1 election, 2026
Chellie Pingree vs. Ronald Russell. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Chellie Pingree favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+29.5
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+22.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
2, averaging D+27.5Forecast spread
±5.3 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). The 2 district polls are blended in by inverse variance, about 54% of the weight: the model alone said D+31.9.
Republican
Ronald Russell
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstEach pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).
PollsterDateSampleMargin
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 54% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Chellie PingreeDEM · incumbent$551k raised
Spent $647kCash on hand $320kDebts $20k15% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Not Reported$55k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$19k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$15k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$8k
- Retail, Food & Consumer Goods$4k
States
- ME$61k
- CA$11k
- NY$9k
- UT$7k
- FL$4k
Ronald RussellREP$214k raised
Spent $220kCash on hand $8k7% from donors under $200Self-funded $67k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$65k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$4k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$3k
- Retail, Food & Consumer Goods$3k
- Not Reported$2k
States
- ME$38k
- NC$17k
- FL$10k
- VA$8k
- TX$7k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for ME-1; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Maine's 1st district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
US Democrat urges House Speaker to sue Trump admin over triumphal arch, says Congress never approved funds
US News: House Democrat Chellie Pingree demands Speaker Mike Johnson take legal action against the Trump administration for starting work on a triumphal arch in Washington without Congressional approval. This move raises questions about funding and authority …
The Times of India · September 8, 2026
Over a Month After ICE Killing in Biddeford, Grieving Family Waits for Answers
With Republican lawmakers refusing to use their congressional authority to investigate a federal agent's fatal shooting last month of Johan Sebastián Durán Guerrero in Biddeford, Maine, Democratic leaders assembled a "shadow hearing" on Monday at a local high…
Common Dreams · August 18, 2026
The Left Should Partner with MAHA to Protect Our Health From Glyphosate
The Supreme Court recently ruled 7-2 that Monsanto, now owned by Bayer, could not be sued because the label of its product, the weed killer Roundup, didn’t mention that the herbicide could cause cancer. The ruling blocked thousands of lawsuits by cancer patie…
Common Dreams · August 4, 2026
‘A debacle of catastrophic proportions’: Maine congresswoman BLASTS ICE over latest fatal shooting
Johan Sebastián Durán Guerrero's death has left his community “terrorized,” says Maine Congresswoman Chellie Pingree.
Biztoc.com · July 18, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗