Democratic
Ben Ambrose
Major-party general-election nominee.
VotePredictor forecast
John Moolenaar favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+24.0
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+30.02026 national environment
D+6.6District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.8 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
John Moolenaar
Incumbent representative for MI-2. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Charlotte Magoon · Green
- Richard Sills · Natural Law
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for MI-2. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for MI-2; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Michigan's 2nd district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Rep. John Moolenaar says U.S. has "responsibility to help Taiwan defend itself" before Xi visit
According to a Reuters exclusive, Chinese President Xi Jinping plans to urge President Trump to halt all arms sales to Taiwan, which Beijing views as its own territory. Republican Rep. John Moolenaar of Michigan, chairman of the House Select Committee on Chin…
CBS News · September 23, 2026
'Incomprehensible': Congress Condemns Ford Deal Allowing Chinese EVs to Be Built in Its Factory
Rep. John Moolenaar, chair of the House Select Committee on the Strategic Competition Between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party, on Thursday criticized Ford Motor Company for partnering with Chinese automaker Geely to produce electric vehicles…
Breitbart News · July 24, 2026
Michigan GOPers Put Canada on Blast Over Wildfire Smoke
Four House Republicans from Michigan say their neighbors to the north aren't doing enough to keep their fires—and their smoke—at home. In a sharply worded letter to Canada's prime minister, the BBC reports that John James, John Moolenaar, Jack Bergman, and Li…
Newser · July 17, 2026
Shaheen, Risch, Colleagues Statement on China's Ethnic Unity Law
Today, U.S. Senators Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) and Jim Risch (R-ID), Ranking Member and Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, alongside Senators John Curtis (R-UT), Jeff Merkley (D-OR), Jacky Rosen (D-NV), Ted Budd (R-NC), Tim Kaine (D-VA), Tammy Du…
Globalsecurity.org · July 1, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗