Democratic
Ben Ambrose
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Michigan District 2 election, 2026
Ben Ambrose vs. John Moolenaar. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
John Moolenaar favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+22.6
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+30.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±6.6 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
John Moolenaar
Incumbent representative for MI-2. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Charlotte Magoon · Green
- Richard Sills · Natural Law
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for MI-2. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026John MoolenaarREP · incumbent$2.1M raised
Spent $2.1MCash on hand $1.2MDebts $16k2% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Not Reported$238k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$90k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$68k
- Manufacturing & Industrial$55k
- Retail, Food & Consumer Goods$51k
States
- MI$864k
- CA$93k
- DC$49k
- VA$30k
- FL$25k
Ben AmbroseDEM$187k raised
Spent $153kCash on hand $33kDebts $1k22% from donors under $200Self-funded $18k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$55k
- Retired$10k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$5k
- Not Reported$2k
- Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals$1k
States
- MI$79k
- VA$20k
- AL$5k
- CA$4k
- NH$3k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for MI-2; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Michigan's 2nd district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Americans are traveling to China for cancer drugs they can't get at home
Until recently, a Manhattanite might venture no more than a few dozen blocks to find the world's most sophisticated cancer treatment. Cutting-edge American medicines have helped reduce the U.S. cancer death rate by about a third since 1990, and New York City …
Yahoo Entertainment · October 20, 2026
Rep. John Moolenaar says U.S. has "responsibility to help Taiwan defend itself" before Xi visit
According to a Reuters exclusive, Chinese President Xi Jinping plans to urge President Trump to halt all arms sales to Taiwan, which Beijing views as its own territory. Republican Rep. John Moolenaar of Michigan, chairman of the House Select Committee on Chin…
CBS News · September 23, 2026
'Incomprehensible': Congress Condemns Ford Deal Allowing Chinese EVs to Be Built in Its Factory
Rep. John Moolenaar, chair of the House Select Committee on the Strategic Competition Between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party, on Thursday criticized Ford Motor Company for partnering with Chinese automaker Geely to produce electric vehicles…
Breitbart News · July 24, 2026
Michigan GOPers Put Canada on Blast Over Wildfire Smoke
Four House Republicans from Michigan say their neighbors to the north aren't doing enough to keep their fires—and their smoke—at home. In a sharply worded letter to Canada's prime minister, the BBC reports that John James, John Moolenaar, Jack Bergman, and Li…
Newser · July 17, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗