Democratic
Betty McCollum
Incumbent representative for MN-4. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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Minnesota District 4 election, 2026
Betty McCollum vs. Paul Wikstrom. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Betty McCollum favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+44.3
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+36.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.2 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Paul Wikstrom
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for MN-4. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Betty McCollumDEM · incumbent$1.5M raised
Spent $1.6MCash on hand $526k3% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$87k
- Defense & Aerospace$58k
- Legal & Professional Services$52k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$39k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$33k
States
- MN$388k
- VA$97k
- CA$90k
- FL$42k
- DC$42k
Paul WikstromREP$65k raised
Spent $36kCash on hand $19k20% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$20k
- Technology & Communications$4k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$2k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$625
- Unemployed$240
States
- MN$41k
- OK$500
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for MN-4; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Minnesota's 4th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
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Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗