Democratic
Kelly Morrison
Incumbent representative for MN-3. Voting record, ideology and biography →
← all House races
Minnesota District 3 election, 2026
Kelly Morrison vs. Tyler Bass. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Kelly Morrison favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+29.0
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+21.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.2 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Tyler Bass
Major-party general-election nominee.
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for MN-3. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Kelly MorrisonDFL · incumbent$1.9M raised
Spent $1.4MCash on hand $508k7% from donors under $200Self-funded $7k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$622k
- Retired$133k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$91k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$45k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$36k
States
- MN$1.2M
- FL$53k
- CA$39k
- NY$20k
- WY$11k
Tyler BassREP— raised
Spent —Cash on hand —
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for MN-3; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Minnesota's 3rd district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
Candidate news
Trump Order Rooted in Debunked Vaccine-Autism Link 'Will Get Kids Killed,' Warns Critic
US President Donald Trump on Monday signed an executive order overhauling federal childhood vaccine recommendations, reviving a discredited theory that vaccines may contribute to autism and prompting condemnation from public health advocates and even rebuke f…
Common Dreams · August 10, 2026
Congresswoman details 'unbelievably inhumane conditions' at massive detention center
U.S. Rep. Kelly Morrison traveled to a sprawling immigrant detention center on the outskirts of El Paso on Monday for an unannounced oversight visit of the facility where many people were transferred after being detained in Minnesota during Operation Metro Su…
Raw Story · March 26, 2026
Democratic Rep. Kelly Morrison Bought Stock in an Autonomous Warship Company as War in Iran Raged (Torrie Herrington/NOTUS)
Torrie Herrington / NOTUS: Democratic Rep. Kelly Morrison Bought Stock in an Autonomous Warship Company as War in Iran Raged — A spokesperson for the Minnesota lawmaker said an “investment adviser” made the trade. One government watchdog called it a “clear…
Memeorandum.com · March 11, 2026
Trump admin gets stern warning over move that would 'run afoul' of court order
by Ariana Figueroa, Florida PhoenixJanuary 14, 2026WASHINGTON — U.S. District Court Judge Jia Cobb probed on Wednesday whether the Trump administration has violated her court order, after Minnesota lawmakers said they were denied an oversight visit to a U.S. …
Raw Story · January 15, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗