Democratic
Nominee not yet identified
The primary may be unresolved, or the source does not yet list one clear nominee.
VotePredictor forecast
Democrat favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+53.3
100%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
D+62.22026 national environment
D+6.3Model uncertainty
±6.9 pointsFundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.
Republican
John Nagel
Candidate currently listed in the 2026 field.
Other listed candidates
- DeVelle Jackson · Independent
- Ilhan Omar · DFL
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for MN-5. The forecast above uses fundamentals only.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for MN-5; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Minnesota's 5th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
No recent verified candidate stories are available in the site's news feed for this race yet.
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗