Democratic
Ilhan Omar
Incumbent representative for MN-5. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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Minnesota District 5 election, 2026
Ilhan Omar vs. John Nagel. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Ilhan Omar favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+66.1
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+62.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.2 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
John Nagel
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- DeVelle Jackson · Independent
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for MN-5. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Ilhan OmarDFL · incumbent$8.2M raised
Spent $5.6MCash on hand $3.0M66% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Not Reported$1.0M
- Self-Employed & Freelance$231k
- Technology & Communications$43k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$41k
- Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals$39k
States
- CA$488k
- MN$200k
- NY$188k
- IL$135k
- TX$130k
John NagelREP$1.1M raised
Spent $1.0MCash on hand $103kDebts $18k68% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$269k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$26k
- Homemaker$15k
- Legal & Professional Services$5k
- Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals$2k
States
- TX$44k
- CA$37k
- MN$29k
- FL$22k
- NY$18k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for MN-5; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Minnesota's 5th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
‘Alhamdulillah’: Ilhan Omar Hails Abdul El-Sayed’s Michigan Senate Win
Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) said eight Muslims would serve in the next Congress as she congratulated Michigan Democrat Abdulrahman El-Sayed on his victory over Republican Mike Rogers in Tuesday’s U.S. Senate election. The post ‘Alhamdulillah’: Ilhan Omar Hails Abd…
Breitbart News · Yesterday
Somali Scammer and Illegal Invader Ilhan Omar Wins Reelection in a Landslide – But Can She Represent Minnesota from Somalia?
Scandal-plagued illegal invader Ilhan Omar won reelection on Tuesday in Minnesota. The post Somali Scammer and Illegal Invader Ilhan Omar Wins Reelection in a Landslide – But Can She Represent Minnesota from Somalia? appeared first on The Gateway Pundit.
Thegatewaypundit.com · November 4, 2026
Abdul El-Sayed’s Victory Is Historic for These Two Reasons
Abdul El-Sayed’s election is a watershed moment in American politics. The victory of a devout Muslim, particularly in a fairly white, moderate state like Michigan, is another step towards America becoming a truly multicultural democracy. And the triumph of a …
The New Republic · November 4, 2026
Rep. Ilhan Omar cruises back to Congress despite immigration fraud probe threatening to deport her
The Somalia-born Omar was elected to a fifth House term over veteran Minnesota state trooper John Nagel.
New York Post · November 4, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗