Democratic
Doug Chapin
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Minnesota District 6 election, 2026
Doug Chapin vs. Tom Emmer. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Tom Emmer favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+13.3
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+20.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±6.6 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Tom Emmer
Incumbent representative for MN-6. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for MN-6. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Tom EmmerREP · incumbent$10.9M raised
Spent $9.6MCash on hand $3.0M7% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Not Reported$929k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$234k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$130k
- Legal & Professional Services$89k
- Unemployed$48k
States
- CA$334k
- FL$257k
- MN$255k
- NY$210k
- TX$145k
Doug ChapinDFL$765k raised
Spent $647kCash on hand $118kDebts $50k40% from donors under $200Self-funded $73k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$180k
- Not Reported$27k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$23k
- Retired$19k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$6k
States
- MN$302k
- VA$12k
- NC$11k
- CA$5k
- DC$4k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for MN-6; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Minnesota's 6th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Emmer and Pfluger make plans to run for House Republican whip
The race for House minority whip is shaping up to be a contest between the current House majority whip, Tom Emmer of Minnesota, and Republican Study Committee Chair August Pfluger of Texas. Emmer, who already said he had planned to run for the job regardless …
Biztoc.com · November 4, 2026
Could Minnesota Scandals Fuel Nationwide GOP Turnout?
With just eight days until the midterm elections, House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-MN) joins the Rundown to break down the battle for the House and why GOP voter turnout will decide control of Congress. Emmer sounds off on massive fraud scandals impacting his…
Fox News · October 26, 2026
Democrats are favored to flip the House, but Republicans still have a path to victory
It's crunch time. With less than two weeks to go until the 2026 midterm elections, Democratic and Republican candidates for the U.S. House of Representatives nationwide are making one last push to persuade voters in their districts — and help their party win …
Yahoo Entertainment · October 23, 2026
What needs to happen for Democrats or Republicans to win control of the House
It's crunch time. With less than a month to go until the 2026 midterm elections, Democratic and Republican candidates for the U.S. House of Representatives nationwide are making one last push to persuade voters in their districts — and help their party win or…
Yahoo Entertainment · October 12, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗