Democratic
Nominee not yet identified
The primary may be unresolved, or the source does not yet list one clear nominee.
VotePredictor forecast
Tom Emmer favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+22.1
100%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+19.52026 national environment
D+6.3Model uncertainty
±6.9 pointsFundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.
Republican
Tom Emmer
Incumbent representative for MN-6. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Doug Chapin · DFL
- Kelly Doss · Forward-Independence
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for MN-6. The forecast above uses fundamentals only.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for MN-6; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Minnesota's 6th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Rep. Tom Emmer’s $2 A Pound Ground Beef Claim Is WAY Off
Rep. Tom Emmer lied about food costs when asked on Fox Business to deliver a Republican national message to counter complaints about data centers and the high cost of food heading into the midterms. The Fox host conveniently did not ask about the skyrocketin…
Crooksandliars.com · September 16, 2026
House Cancels Votes to Avoid Embarrassment Over Hegseth Impeachment
The House is going home again—this time to avoid a vote on Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s impeachment.House GOP leadership announced Wednesday morning that they will end their current slate of votes early and head home until the midterms, a nearly two-month…
The New Republic · September 16, 2026
EXCLUSIVE – Tom Emmer: Tim Walz Mining Ban Empowers China, Kills Union Jobs
House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-MN) said Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz's order blocking copper-nickel mining near the Boundary Waters will empower foreign adversaries like China and kill union jobs across the state's northern Iron Range. The post EXCLUSIVE – Tom E…
Breitbart News · August 22, 2026
Dems Are Looking Good in North Carolina—or Are They?
You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside WashingtonDems are looking good in North Carolina—or are they?If Democrats want to take back…
The New Republic · August 19, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗