Democratic
Wesley Bell
Incumbent representative for MO-1. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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Missouri District 1 election, 2026
Wesley Bell vs. Paul Berry on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Wesley Bell favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+68.2
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
D+58.62026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±7.2 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Democratic incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Paul Berry
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Tom Schmitz · Libertarian
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for MO-1. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Wesley BellDEM · incumbent$4.0M raised
Spent $4.1MCash on hand $407k2% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- BETTER BLUE FUND$77k
- PANAR, MANNY$14k
- SNYDER, ANDREW$13k
- BI-STATE BLUE FUND$12k
- KLEIN, RONNIE$10k
Industries
- Not Reported$994k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$410k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$291k
- Legal & Professional Services$177k
- Education & Academia$31k
States
- MO$589k
- CA$579k
- NY$480k
- FL$350k
- IL$235k
Paul BerryREP— raised
Spent —Cash on hand —
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for MO-1; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
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Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗