Democratic
Wesley Bell
Incumbent representative for MO-1. Voting record, ideology and biography →
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Missouri District 1 election, 2026
Wesley Bell vs. Paul Berry on a newly enacted 2026 district map.
VotePredictor forecast
Wesley Bell favored
Safe D · predicted margin D+59.5
100%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
D+58.02026 national environment
D+5.5Model uncertainty
±6.9 pointsFundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.
Republican
Paul Berry
Major-party general-election nominee.
Other listed candidates
- Tom Schmitz · Libertarian
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for MO-1. The forecast above therefore uses fundamentals only. A poll table will appear here when matched polls are available.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for MO-1; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
Transcript: What El-Sayed’s Narrow Win Tells Us About the Democrats
This is a lightly edited transcript of the August 5 edition of Right Now With Perry Bacon. You can watch the video here or by following this show on YouTube or Substack. Perry Bacon: I’m Perry Bacon, the host. Two great guests. Julia Azari is a political scie…
The New Republic · August 5, 2026
Brutal embarrassment for ex-Squad firebrand Cori Bush after learning fate in desperate comeback bid for Congress
One of America's most controversial progressive lawmakers saw her political comeback attempt collapse Tuesday night as Representative Wesley Bell defeated Representative Cori Bush
Dailymail.com · August 5, 2026
How Popular Is Hakeem Jeffries Among Democrats?
Editor’s Note: Welcome to The TNR Blue Book. It’s our new daily newsletter that covers Congress and much more, but with a distinctly TNR twist: Our focus will be strictly on Democrats, liberal and progressive groups, and the fight to take back power and save …
The New Republic · August 5, 2026
Establishment Dems notch rare win as Wesley Bell fends off DSA - Axios
Establishment Dems notch rare win as Wesley Bell fends off DSAAxios Missouri US Rep. Wesley Bell wins a Democratic primary rematch against former Rep. Cori BushAP News Missouri election results: Latest on primary race for HouseUSA Today Progressives’ anti-AIP…
Slashdot.org · August 5, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗