Democratic
Fred Wellman
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Missouri District 2 election, 2026
Fred Wellman vs. Ann Wagner on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Ann Wagner favored
Toss-up · predicted margin R+1.9
65%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+11.62026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
4, averaging D+1.5Forecast spread
±5.1 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). The 4 district polls are blended in by inverse variance, about 58% of the weight: the model alone said R+6.6.
Republican
Ann Wagner
Incumbent representative for MO-2. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Brandon Daugherty · Libertarian
Polls
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstEach pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).
PollsterDateSampleMargin
Emerson CollegeGrade A-10-142026-10-14D+5.0
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 58% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Ann WagnerREP · incumbent$4.2M raised
Spent $5.7MCash on hand $1.6M18% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Retired$583k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$207k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$104k
- Legal & Professional Services$51k
- Energy, Utilities & Mining$27k
States
- MO$825k
- CA$132k
- FL$86k
- NY$81k
- TX$72k
Fred WellmanDEM$2.2M raised
Spent $1.9MCash on hand $241k36% from donors under $200Self-funded $1k
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$600k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$116k
- Legal & Professional Services$29k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$28k
- Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals$26k
States
- MO$658k
- CA$97k
- NY$64k
- IL$36k
- DC$31k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for MO-2; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Missouri's 2nd district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
Candidate news
Democrat Fred Wellman won in 'enemy territory.' Now he has to hold it.
A political "blue wave," often mentioned but seldom seen, struck hard across the country Tuesday — and took longtime Missouri Congresswoman Ann Wagner with it.
STLtoday.com · November 4, 2026
Reason Wins
As I write this at about 11:30pm, the AP has called Missouri’s 2nd Congressional District, where I live, for the Democrat, Fred Wellman; and Ann Wagner is out. Nobody expected this. This is a district that was gerrymandered safe-Republican. The last Democr…
Freethoughtblogs.com · November 4, 2026
Eric Schmitt suffers new embarrassment as aide blames 'software error' for donor mess
In December 2023, a woman living in a small community near Austin, Texas, made a $78.08 contribution through WinRed. A few weeks later, she made another.Then came four more contributions in January 2024.Those were the first six entries under her name in Feder…
Raw Story · October 3, 2026
These red state Republicans just stabbed their voters in the back
On Wednesday night, the U.S. House delivered a stinging, bipartisan rebuke to President Donald Trump’s trade agenda, voting 219-211 to rescind the “fentanyl emergency” tariffs on Canadian imports.Six Republicans — Reps. Thomas Massie (R-KY), Don Bacon (R-NE),…
Raw Story · February 15, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗