Democratic
Fred Wellman
Major-party general-election nominee.
← all House races
Missouri District 2 election, 2026
Fred Wellman vs. Ann Wagner on a newly enacted 2026 district map.
VotePredictor forecast
Ann Wagner favored
Lean R · predicted margin R+5.2
80%
chance to win
2024 presidential lean
R+11.62026 national environment
D+6.6District polls
1, averaging R+1.0Forecast spread
±6.1 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). The 1 district poll are blended in by inverse variance, about 39% of the weight: the model alone said R+7.9.
Republican
Ann Wagner
Incumbent representative for MO-2. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Brandon Daugherty · Libertarian
Polls
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMargin
Remington Research Group2026-09-15R+1.0
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 39% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for MO-2; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Missouri's 2nd district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
Candidate news
Eric Schmitt suffers new embarrassment as aide blames 'software error' for donor mess
In December 2023, a woman living in a small community near Austin, Texas, made a $78.08 contribution through WinRed. A few weeks later, she made another.Then came four more contributions in January 2024.Those were the first six entries under her name in Feder…
Raw Story · October 3, 2026
These red state Republicans just stabbed their voters in the back
On Wednesday night, the U.S. House delivered a stinging, bipartisan rebuke to President Donald Trump’s trade agenda, voting 219-211 to rescind the “fentanyl emergency” tariffs on Canadian imports.Six Republicans — Reps. Thomas Massie (R-KY), Don Bacon (R-NE),…
Raw Story · February 15, 2026
This Made Me Laugh
Ray Hartmann, U.S. Representative from Missouri’s First Congressional District (mostly the city of St. Louis), reports that my rep. from the 2nd District, Ann Wagner (I’m not to blame for her, I promise), got a little confused. 8-) It’s so nice that Republica…
Freethoughtblogs.com · December 9, 2025
MAGA senator’s rampages go far beyond mere defensiveness
Let’s talk about what happens when Josh Hawley gets angry.Missouri’s senior U.S. senator doesn’t take criticism lightly — whether from the press, his colleagues or anyone he perceives as an enemy. His approach? If you get hit, hit back harder.It’s not just a …
Raw Story · November 13, 2025
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗