VotePredictor
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Minnesota District 8 election, 2026

Trina Swanson vs. Pete Stauber. Today's article: every forecast for this race →

VotePredictor forecast
Pete Stauber favored
Likely R · predicted margin R+8.7
92%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+14.0
2026 national environment
D+8.0
District polls
1, averaging R+7.9
Forecast spread
±6.1 points

Margin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). The 1 district poll are blended in by inverse variance, about 39% of the weight: the model alone said R+9.1.

Democratic

Trina Swanson

Major-party general-election nominee.

Polls

The polls behind it

1 poll · newest first

Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).

PollsterDateMargin
Public Policy Polling (via Wikipedia)Grade A-10-26R+6.0

These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 39% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.

Campaign money

FEC reports through October 14, 2026
Pete StauberREP · incumbent$2.6M raised
Spent $2.0MCash on hand $1.1M7% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. STAUBER VICTORY FUND$153k
  2. FRIENDS OF SURFACE TRANSPORTATION$38k
  3. DROR, BRIAN$18k
  4. GREATER MINNESOTA VICTORY FUND$16k
  5. ANDERSON, ROLLIE AND BARBARA$14k

Industries

  1. Retired$247k
  2. Self-Employed & Freelance$50k
  3. Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$38k
  4. Legal & Professional Services$31k
  5. Transportation & Logistics$25k

States

  1. MN$608k
  2. TX$65k
  3. VA$37k
  4. CA$35k
  5. DC$30k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗
Trina SwansonDFL$727k raised
Spent $551kCash on hand $177k35% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states

Contributors

  1. HYATT, MARCIA$8k
  2. KNIGHTON, ROBERT$7k
  3. DUNLEAVY, GLORIA$7k
  4. SIMONOWICZ, NINA$7k
  5. HOWARD, S DIANE$6k

Industries

  1. Unemployed$218k
  2. Self-Employed & Freelance$43k
  3. Not Reported$31k
  4. Retired$16k
  5. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$8k

States

  1. MN$349k
  2. MD$10k
  3. DC$9k
  4. OH$8k
  5. CT$7k
Every contribution on GovMoneyGraph ↗

What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for MN-8; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report
View House ratings ↗
Inside Elections
View House ratings ↗
Sabato's Crystal Ball
View House analysis ↗

Past results

Every election in Minnesota's 8th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.

YearWinnerMargin
2018Pete Stauber(R)R+5.5
2016Richard M. Nolan(D)D+0.6
2014Richard M. Nolan(D)D+1.4
2012Richard M. Nolan(D)D+8.9
2010Chip Cravaack(R)R+1.6

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Biztoc.com · September 3, 2026
Every House Member Who’s Still Not at Work After a Five-Week Vacation

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The New Republic · September 1, 2026
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The New Republic · August 19, 2026
List of Celebrities Donating to Luke Gulbranson's Minnesota Campaign

Former Summer House star Luke Gulbranson is attempting to oust Minnesota Representative Pete Stauber, a Republican, and while his donations are significantly lower than those of the Republicans, he has a few familiar names donating to him, according to record…

Biztoc.com · July 20, 2026

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: MN-7 · MO-1