Missouri District 3 election, 2026

Bethany Mann vs. Bob Onder on a newly enacted 2026 district map.

VotePredictor forecast

Bob Onder favored

Safe R · predicted margin R+26.2

100%

chance to win

2024 presidential lean

R+20.3

2026 national environment

D+6.3

Model uncertainty

±6.9 points

Fundamentals model using district presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment. It is not a poll average.

Democratic

Bethany Mann

Major-party general-election nominee.

Republican

Bob Onder

Incumbent representative for MO-3. Voting record, ideology and biography →

Other listed candidates

Jim Higgins · Libertarian

Polls

No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for MO-3. The forecast above uses fundamentals only.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for MO-3; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report

View House ratings ↗

Inside Elections

View House ratings ↗

Sabato's Crystal Ball

View House analysis ↗

Candidate news

Missouri GOP caves on its gerrymandered map crusade — for now

Missouri Republicans are pressing on with a federal appeals court fight over the state's gerrymandered congressional map, even though the battle over this year's election is effectively over — a tacit admission that this round of litigation is really about se…

Raw Story · September 15, 2026

The Supreme Court Hits a Limit With Missouri’s Election Map Mess

The Supreme Court rejected a brazen plot by Missouri Republican officials to hold the state’s upcoming congressional elections under an illegal map on Thursday morning, ending a weeklong jumble of dueling court orders that disrupted the state’s election proce…

The New Republic · September 10, 2026

Terse Supreme Court ruling shuts down GOP's Missouri gerrymander hopes for midterms

The U.S. Supreme Court on Thursday blocked a federal judge's order forcing Missouri to hold its November elections under a gerrymandered map the state's high court said never took effect.The order ran roughly ten lines, carried no signature and offered no rea…

Raw Story · September 10, 2026

Top red state election official hauled before court to face contempt over defied map order

The Missouri Supreme Court ordered Republican Secretary of State Denny Hoskins to appear in person Thursday and explain why he should not be held in contempt for directing election officials to use a congressional map the court has barred him from implementin…

Raw Story · September 9, 2026

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: MO-2 · MO-4