Missouri District 3 election, 2026

Bethany Mann vs. Bob Onder on a newly enacted 2026 district map.

VotePredictor forecast

Bob Onder favored

Safe R · predicted margin R+14.3

98%

chance to win

2024 presidential lean

R+20.3

2026 national environment

D+6.6

District polls

none

Forecast spread

±7.8 points

Margin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.

Democratic

Bethany Mann

Major-party general-election nominee.

Republican

Bob Onder

Incumbent representative for MO-3. Voting record, ideology and biography →

Other listed candidates

Jim Higgins · Libertarian

Polls

No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for MO-3. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.

Other forecasts

We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for MO-3; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.

Cook Political Report

View House ratings ↗

Inside Elections

View House ratings ↗

Sabato's Crystal Ball

View House analysis ↗

Candidate news

Supreme Court rejects Trump-backed Missouri congressional map for 3rd time

JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. (AP) — The Supreme Court on Friday turned away an attempt to use a new Missouri congressional map backed by President Donald Trump, putting an end to a long-running legal dispute as absentee voting is underway in the midterm elections. Th…

Yahoo Entertainment · September 25, 2026

Missouri GOP caves on its gerrymandered map crusade — for now

Missouri Republicans are pressing on with a federal appeals court fight over the state's gerrymandered congressional map, even though the battle over this year's election is effectively over — a tacit admission that this round of litigation is really about se…

Raw Story · September 15, 2026

The Supreme Court Hits a Limit With Missouri’s Election Map Mess

The Supreme Court rejected a brazen plot by Missouri Republican officials to hold the state’s upcoming congressional elections under an illegal map on Thursday morning, ending a weeklong jumble of dueling court orders that disrupted the state’s election proce…

The New Republic · September 10, 2026

Terse Supreme Court ruling shuts down GOP's Missouri gerrymander hopes for midterms

The U.S. Supreme Court on Thursday blocked a federal judge's order forcing Missouri to hold its November elections under a gerrymandered map the state's high court said never took effect.The order ran roughly ten lines, carried no signature and offered no rea…

Raw Story · September 10, 2026

Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗

Nearby in the directory: MO-2 · MO-4