Democratic
Bethany Mann
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Missouri District 3 election, 2026
Bethany Mann vs. Bob Onder on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Bob Onder favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+10.5
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+20.32026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±6.6 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Bob Onder
Incumbent representative for MO-3. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Jim Higgins · Libertarian
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for MO-3. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Bob OnderREP$1.1M raised
Spent $771kCash on hand $526kDebts $894k7% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- ONDER VICTORY FUND$66k
- SMITH, KATHRYN V.$28k
- BRAUER, BEAU$14k
- BURNS, JUDY$14k
- POGUE, RICHARD W.$14k
Industries
- Retired$134k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$39k
- Legal & Professional Services$20k
- Manufacturing & Industrial$19k
- Defense & Aerospace$16k
States
- MO$365k
- TX$18k
- IL$14k
- VA$12k
- PA$8k
Bethany MannDEM$87k raised
Spent $85kCash on hand $6kDebts $82346% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$13k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$5k
- Retired$3k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$2k
- Technology & Communications$990
States
- MO$29k
- NY$750
- NE$500
- SC$455
- MA$250
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for MO-3; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Candidate news
Supreme Court rejects Trump-backed Missouri congressional map for 3rd time
JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. (AP) — The Supreme Court on Friday turned away an attempt to use a new Missouri congressional map backed by President Donald Trump, putting an end to a long-running legal dispute as absentee voting is underway in the midterm elections. Th…
Yahoo Entertainment · September 25, 2026
Missouri GOP caves on its gerrymandered map crusade — for now
Missouri Republicans are pressing on with a federal appeals court fight over the state's gerrymandered congressional map, even though the battle over this year's election is effectively over — a tacit admission that this round of litigation is really about se…
Raw Story · September 15, 2026
The Supreme Court Hits a Limit With Missouri’s Election Map Mess
The Supreme Court rejected a brazen plot by Missouri Republican officials to hold the state’s upcoming congressional elections under an illegal map on Thursday morning, ending a weeklong jumble of dueling court orders that disrupted the state’s election proce…
The New Republic · September 10, 2026
Terse Supreme Court ruling shuts down GOP's Missouri gerrymander hopes for midterms
The U.S. Supreme Court on Thursday blocked a federal judge's order forcing Missouri to hold its November elections under a gerrymandered map the state's high court said never took effect.The order ran roughly ten lines, carried no signature and offered no rea…
Raw Story · September 10, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗